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SHIFT: Stop shopping for an HDTV! 3D is coming!

SHIFT: Stop shopping for an HDTV! 3D is coming!

Do not buy an HDTV. Do not buy a Blu-ray player. Do not buy an AV receiver.

Why? 3D HDTV and Blu-ray is coming.

Big deal, you say? Yes, big deal, says I. Read on if you want to avoid a killer case of instant obsolescence and buyer's remorse.

Rule No. 1 when buying technology: Never say to yourself, "I really don't need X advanced feature" to rationalize saving a few bucks. Tech-buying penury always alwaysalwaysalways leads to not only regret that you didn't spend the extra Rubles on what you didn't think you needed at the time of the original purchase, but a follow-up purchase to make up for your initial cheapskate rationalization.

More on why a reminder of this rule is relevant in a moment.

It's Official: 3D HDTV Is Coming

At a series of small demos last week, one of which I attended, Panasonic officially/unofficially announced that it'll start to sell 3D plasma HDTVs and 3D Blu-ray decks sometime next year, probably about a year from now, I'd guess. 3D at home makes people snigger (well, mea culpa, it made me snigger eight months ago). But Panasonic's pseudo-announcement is no sniggering situation. Even though no other HDTV or Blu-ray manufacturer has announced support for Panasonic's 3D system, "They support it in private," according to Panasonic VP Bob Perry, a respected veteran of the consumer electronics business. "I'm not aware of any manufacturer or studio that says they don't support it."

The twisted Yogi Berra-like semantics of that statement notwithstanding, Sony, for instance, has announced its own 3D PlayStation 3 initiative, and the company shot and broadcast last January's FedEx Bowl Florida-Oklahoma BSC National Championship Game using Sony's 3ality Digital image-capture technology for an invited audience at Las Vegas' Paris Hotel's RealD-equipped Theatre des Arts.

Plus, Perry says there could be as many as 50 3D Blu-ray titles if 3D equipment were available today, and there'll be likely 100 3D Blu-ray titles at launch. As we know, Hollywood loves to sell us new versions of the same old explosion-filled crap.

There won't be any format war, either. Panasonic will be using an official 3D Blu-ray standard currently in process, and the new HDMI 1.4 specification, which specifies 3D as one of its improvements over the current 1.3a spec.

A new HDMI spec means, of course, you'll need a new HDMI 1.4-compatible AV receiver. With all these official tech organizations behind 3D, Panasonic is likely only the first to announce 3D product.


How's It Work?

Panasonic's 3D stereoscopic system is electronic, so chuck those cardboard red-and-green glasses or those plastic polarized glasses you got when you went to see Up. The first Panasonic 3D HDTVs will be plasmas, the only sets with a fast enough refresh rate to accurately render a 3D image.

The dual-scan/dual-driver plasmas display alternate 1080p frames every 60th of a second, one set of frames mimicking what your left eye sees, the other set mimicking what your right eye sees; current HDTVs are single-scan so can't display alternating stereoscopic 1080p frames.

New 3D HDTVs will be equipped with emitters that transmit 120Hz control signals to special battery-powered glasses that, using microscopic "shutters," essentially merge the alternating stereoscopic 1080p frames the way your brain processes the image received from each of your eyes to create a true-to-live 3D HDTV image.

James Cameron's Avatar is shot using a twin-lensed system that mimics the way your two eyes see. High-def 2D camcorders, due in 2011, also are likely to use a dual-lens system.

The glasses themselves look like oversized sunglasses and comfortably fit over regular glasses. They'll be powered by a battery that will supply enough juice for 250 hours of 3D viewing. The glasses, likely to be manufactured by a number of companies, automatically turn themselves off when they don't detect signal from the emitters.


How Much Will It Cost?

Perry admits the first gear will cost more than today's equipment, but he wouldn't be pinned down as to how much. But getting back to my Rule No. 1 about tech buying, you shouldn't use the extra dollars as an excuse to buy a cheap HDTV and Blu-ray player now and dismiss waiting for the more expensive 3D option a year from now, unless you plan to move what you buy now to a second room.

Why? Perry believes that in three to five years, half of all HDTVs will be 3D. Eschew 3D and buy now and you'll regret it; in a few years, those who waited will be inviting you over to watch 3D HDTV while you stare impotently at the cheap 2D HDTV you ignored my advice to buy today.


How's It Look?

And that's the other reason you'll regret not waiting — the 3D HDTV looks spectacular. No flicker, no layered panels, not holographic — just a pure, natural, seamless realistic 3D image with depth-of-field like you'd experience in the real world. It's kind of spooky, actually. I watched nine minutes of clips including scenes from Up, nature footage and lots of material from the Beijing Olympics. I can't image what the XXX folks will do with it. Well, maybe I can.

I predict that, just like you became an HDTV snob, swearing never to watch "regular" TV again, you'll quickly become a 3D HDTV snob.

Drawbacks? A couple. I didn't get any of the usual focusing headaches one often gets watching 3D, but then again I watched for only 9 minutes. You can watch 3D HDTV in a well-lit room, but it's most effective in a dark room. Perry says that 240Hz LCDs "may" work okay (but plasma always was the better technology, so this isn't exactly a problem). And my guess is you'll want at least a 65-inch HDTV to really blow your optical doors off.

Then there are the glasses. Wearing glasses to watch TV will definitely take some getting used to. Maybe, somehow, wearing glasses to watch TV may be deemed to be cool. But 3D HDTV is coming, like it or not. So, HDTV caveat emptor. You've been warned.

 
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By jay jay at 8:01 PM ON 08/27/09

didn't this site write an article a few months ago saying that 3d tv was a fad and it would never become popular? can you say flip flop?

http://dvice.com/archives/2009/01/shift-why-3d-hd.php

By nilus at 8:04 PM ON 08/27/09

Thanks for the warning. But this is fad technology. No one is going to want to watch 3-D TV all the time. I doubt this is even a blip on the tech radar next year.

Honestly it sounds like a way for the TV companies to try to hock Plasma screens, the big loosers of the flat screen wars. Sure they were best tech, but they also cost way to much and had the shortest lifespan.

By Lucky13 at 9:41 PM ON 08/27/09

maybe itll work. i mean if these 3d movies with those funky electric glasses are badass like people in imax 3d say theu are then it may take off. prob not significantly. i imagine it mostly being discovery/science channel programs and movies. "The dual-scan/dual-driver plasmas display alternate 1080p frames every 60th of a second, one set of frames mimicking what your left eye sees, the other set mimicking what your right eye sees; current HDTVs are single-scan so can't display alternating stereoscopic 1080p frames." so im sure that these 3d hdtvs would have the option to display a regular 2d image.

By jon at 11:32 PM ON 08/27/09

I know that Dvice is basically a shill for NBC, but did you question anything you were told?

By Jerry at 1:12 AM ON 08/28/09

This is kind of late. Nvidia has the same setup as the article describes, and it hasn't made a huge shift in PC gaming. Nvidia's system seems to have been around for a while considering that it supports a number of older games. And a company called IZ3D has a monitor that that uses polarized glasses that don't require a USB cable tethering you in place.

By salt at 1:52 AM ON 08/28/09

I'm blind in one eye, so no 3d for me. Bummer!

By Jack at 4:40 AM ON 08/28/09

Do not buy an HDTV, I cant see anything about 3D is coming

By RG at 6:58 AM ON 08/28/09

@Jerry
Yes nvidia does have polarized glasses to use with computer games, but you will be required to have a decent NVidia graphics card, and a compatible 120Hz monitor.
And there aren't many compatible monitors available, that is why it hasn't taken off yet.

By Noah at 8:08 AM ON 08/28/09

Let me just put these glasses on, hmm, they don't seem to fit over my current glasses. Oh well, it's not like anybody wears glasses so I'm just the odd man out.

By Mihos at 10:56 AM ON 08/28/09

I rather have 3D video than motion control in video games. Any technology that makes me spill my beer is a failure.

By thexfile at 10:58 AM ON 08/28/09

i saw a set on a building trade show round about feb this year.

it was like a 22"model and you did not had to wear any glases.

at 1st i walked right past it and thought it was just a lame tv stand.

then when you get in front of it you see the 3d effect....

the only thing withe it that it was inward insted of outward.

so insted of al those movies where stuf came out of the screen , whel this set had more depthe in it....

and whel i have a 46" hd lcd tv withe hd tuner and whel i sometimes get that feeling already.

specaly when i'm watshing like nature programs etc.... you get the feeling that there is more depthe...

what i've also herd is that "philips"here have created a tegnologie where they can convert 2d stuf to 3d stuf , even withe recordings made 10 years ago....

and if i think it was worthe it ??

whel if it was the sort i saw i rather have my normal tv....

if the picture came outside the frame , whel maby i would have to think about it....

By thexfile at 10:59 AM ON 08/28/09

i saw a set on a building trade show round about feb this year.

it was like a 22"model and you did not had to wear any glases.

at 1st i walked right past it and thought it was just a lame tv stand.

then when you get in front of it you see the 3d effect....

the only thing withe it that it was inward insted of outward.

so insted of al those movies where stuf came out of the screen , whel this set had more depthe in it....

and whel i have a 46" hd lcd tv withe hd tuner and whel i sometimes get that feeling already.

specaly when i'm watshing like nature programs etc.... you get the feeling that there is more depthe...

what i've also herd is that "philips"here have created a tegnologie where they can convert 2d stuf to 3d stuf , even withe recordings made 10 years ago....

and if i think it was worthe it ??

whel if it was the sort i saw i rather have my normal tv....

if the picture came outside the frame , whel maby i would have to think about it....

By Old Man Dotes at 11:56 AM ON 08/28/09

Requiring the viewer to wear glasses is a deal-breaker. Also requiring Blu-Ray is a deal-breaker.

There are several technologies that work quite well with no glasses on the viewer's head; one that I have seen uses a hemispherical display with the video projected on the inside of the hemisphere and the effect is at least as good as the migraine-inducing LCD-shutter glasses, without requiring dual-scan or high-speed display technology.

Note that you can count on the BD disk producers to try to jack up the price of 3D BD movies to US$50, even though actual production costs remain exactly the same as audio CDs and "old school" DVDs.

By omega82 at 1:11 PM ON 08/28/09

I'm sorry but 3D does not work for me nothing really pops out to me while watching 3D and after or during the movie I have to take the glasses off because they screw with my eyes to much so I hope this is just a fad that goes away soon.

By tiki god at 1:13 PM ON 08/28/09

how is this going to be different than the Mitsubishi DLP that I have right now? it claims to support 3d:

http://www.dlp.com/hdtv/3-d_dlp_hdtv.aspx

By Avro at 3:00 PM ON 08/28/09

...Or buy a 3D ready TV like the Samsung Plasmas that have been out for a year already.

I doubt 3D will be a fad. After coming back from an IMax 3D movie 2 weeks ago, I felt convinced: You feel like you're in the room with the actors. Pretty cool stuff!

Hopefully the screens that don't require glasses for the effect will be affordable in 5 years or so.

By asher at 3:09 PM ON 08/28/09

if, instead of flipping back and forth, both eyes went at the same time, it could be used to play games. Instead of left eye and right eye, it could be player 1 and player 2.

two player full screen head to head action

By awgyetvan at 5:53 PM ON 08/28/09

Love the article. One correction: 3ality Digital is an independent company; we own our technology, not Sony. However, we do use Sony cameras on our 3D camera rigs, and we are very proud of that fact. And we wholeheartedly believe in the future of 3D TV, for which we offer display optimization technologies. Please note that other manufacturers are also offering 3D LCD TV's, which use passive glasses (the same kind you use if you see a movie in a RealD theater), and which offer a viewing experience that is just as good as what Panasonic is offering with active glasses. For more information on what's happening in 3D, please visit our website: www.3alitydigital.com.

By Bob at 8:36 PM ON 08/28/09

It would be nice if it became a standard, 3d is definitely a plus.

When are they going to get around to just piping micro-led images straight into your retina? Or is there no way to get around horrible eye damage w/ that method?

One more step towards the top, anyway. Thousands more to go before we get to full fledged virtual realities :D

By martinlandau at 2:53 AM ON 08/29/09

Tiki God - you can use your DLP tv and a sony playstation or an xbox to play stereo3d games right now - invincible tiger : the legend of han tao will work today as well as all the PC stereo3d solutions. http://www.mtbs3d.com/phpbb/viewtopic.php?f=80&t=4154&hilit=han+tao

By Facepalm at 5:37 AM ON 08/29/09

Lol at the previous article about how 3d TV is basically worthless and you shouldn't buy it. but now your saying buy it. Can you say, epic fail?

By sanddog42 at 10:32 AM ON 08/29/09

jay jay, I hope you didn't go searching for that link since the author cited it in the article.
("well, mea culpa, it made me snigger eight months ago").

Can you say reading comprehension?

By Kitt1977 at 2:20 PM ON 08/29/09

Hmm... for multiplayer gaming, each glass could be offset for a different player so instead of four player split screen, each player gets a signal of a full screen.

By ignorance at 8:12 PM ON 08/30/09

"Requiring the viewer to wear glasses is a deal-breaker. Also requiring Blu-Ray is a deal-breaker."

Where have you been for the past few years? Blu ray a deal breaker? Get a job,

"There are several technologies that work quite well with no glasses on the viewer's head; one that I have seen uses a hemispherical display with the video projected on the inside of the hemisphere and the effect is at least as good as the migraine-inducing LCD-shutter glasses, without requiring dual-scan or high-speed display technology."

You do realize we are talking about the CONSUMER market right? No one wants a hemispherical display in their homes. Also I believe your opinion of shutters giving headaches would differ if you had tried nvidia 3d vision with a 3d ready dlp.

"Note that you can count on the BD disk producers to try to jack up the price of 3D BD movies to US$50, even though actual production costs remain exactly the same as audio CDs and "old school" DVDs."

Aside from the bitterness there is ignorance, S3d movies will cost more to make because the cameras cost more (because there is two of them) and the post production process will be more difficult especially in the beginning, So while I appreciate your comments I would appreciate more if you did some research first.

By crashjohnson at 10:39 PM ON 08/30/09

this is pointless and fad tech... you can already watch 3d movies with glasses right now on standard tvs. Admittedly the technology and picture would be better but... if you still have to have special movies and glasses then I see no real difference...

By tritter at 3:32 PM ON 08/31/09

So - this will take over the market? right?
The market consisting of people who want to replace every AV device they have and can afford a 65" plasma screen and new HDMI cabling and a new 1st gen 3d blu-ray player. It's taken years for blu-ray to get out of the starting blocks, and is still slow to go after winning the format war. 3D will just be a niche in that market - at best!

By sk3ptik at 9:12 PM ON 08/31/09

In the "How's It Work" section, Wolpin says to "chuck those...glasses," but when he writes about drawbacks in the last paragraph, he writes that "Wearing glasses to watch TV will definitely take some getting used to." So which is it? Glasses or no?

By 3DReadyTVs at 11:45 AM ON 09/01/09

3D Ready TVs are here!

www.3DReadyTVs.com

By teckel at 6:09 AM ON 09/02/09

My Amiga computer did this like 25 years ago. This is nothing new, it was a fad when I was a kid, but it quickly wore off.

The author is obviously either joking with us or is truly a boob and a non-thinker rolled into one. The rule on electronics purchases should be to never put off a purchase for "technology x" because if you do, by the time "technology x" is released, you'll only then put off your purchase for "technology y" and "technology z", etc. and never make a purchase.

The author of this article is a moron if he really believes what he said, it's that simple.

By DiskDoctor at 3:56 AM ON 09/03/09

I can't seem to find a way to play this 8-track tape.

Maybe it's time for me to upgrade?

By Kuluvas at 5:23 AM ON 09/03/09

Lets not forget the major draw back with any plasma, at least to me. the black was milky and never ever "BLACK" But also he never said anything about watching without the glasses, will it look like garbage like the stuff in theaters dose now if you take them off ? Not to mention i would much rather have Holographic anyway like in the movie Paycheck, or does anyone remember that arcade game from the 90's "Time Traveler" that cost too much to play($5 a min or 2 I think) that was super cool. drop 3D I want Holographic instead it would be more fun I think, Like "Always letting the Wookie win" "Time Traveler video link for those that don't remember or were too young to

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-lyTasMAYic

By Kuluvas at 5:33 AM ON 09/03/09

lol I also forgot to mention that I got a set of glasses at a comp show about 6-8 years ago that mostly do the same thing and still work today only better on my 22" LCD monitor. Well maybe not better, it's probably only cuz the resolution it self is better so things seem sharper but i would be interested in seeing this tech tho. I did forget to pose the question, If you could buy a 65" 3D or a 65" Holo which would you rather have ? Personally I would rather have the near Life sized action going on in front of me without having to put on stupid glasses. Oh and the game I don't think was really Holographic it looked like it was but im not sure how they made it work i believe it was a perspective thing rather than holographic but a good start none the less I think....

By Stuman at 9:28 AM ON 09/03/09

Well, to be honest...I've never seen a 3D movie that made me think after seeing it that it was worth it or overall a better experience.

Superman was meh even in Imax (imo), My Bloody Valentine 3D was far too dark and the latest Final Destination wasn't anything special...

The film always seems a bit dark and somewhat blurry imo.

It's a gimic, and I just don't see the fascination...unless the tech gets a lot better than it is currently.

Give me normal hi-def 2D anyday!!!

Regards

By Justaguy at 5:58 PM ON 09/03/09

Stuman, go see a good 3D film instead of the junk you cited. Any computer graphics film made in 3D that I have seen has been spectacular.

Up used 3D well, no shockers or stuff coming out at you, but they used it to improve the story.

I love 3D!!

By NHughes at 4:06 PM ON 09/05/09

gaming in 3d would be worth it by itself in my opinion lol

By popeye9000 at 1:16 AM ON 09/07/09

I did see Up in 3D but it was too dark and caused a bit of eye strain. I would have preferred if it were in 2D even though the 3D was well done.

By ineedyou22 at 9:57 AM ON 09/12/09

I think I'll wait until you don't have to wear the glasses to watch it in 3D, OR I could just wait until they design the holographic TVs...besides I just bought to HDTVs!

By Starwolf at 10:55 PM ON 09/13/09

Okay, HD3DTV! Could we add a few more letters to our television sets? I would like to know why we're supposed to act all excited about a non-Star Wars technology. If everyone will please recall, from the movies, when any distance communication was made or even the game between R2D2 and Chewey in Episode 4 after they leave Mos Eisley, ALL used 3D images. I can't imagine purchasing a 3DTV that doesn't use this technology.

Imagine seeing a concert video come to life in a projected 3D image that comes out at you, the same way you would see it at the show.

AND THUS, we would then step into the Holo Deck on from the Star Trek series. Things become solid and interaction is possible.

Why should I buy an HD3DTV when I could wait for THAT technological break through.

Thanks Gene Roddenberry, Walt Disney, George Lucas, Steven Spielberg, and so many others for having the foresight and inspiration to steer science, engineering, and imagination in the direction they have gone. Without those guys and many others we would still be using rotary telephones that were big enough to defend yourself from wild animal attacks.

By han solo at 1:54 PM ON 10/13/09

3d sux. My sharp hidef is the shizznit

By Anonymous at 8:38 PM ON 10/16/09

This writer is an idiot; 3D is a horrible fad!
Gamers epsecially you FPSers the last thing you want is a translucent dulled image of what your looking at especially if your tracking a target . the details are dulled with 3d because of overlapping lines so there goes the crisp picture of HD and good graphics and lets not forget the eyestrain and headaches.
Its a stupid fad, dont waste your money

By Rick at 8:17 PM ON 12/28/09

This could be great for gaming

By kage at 9:14 PM ON 12/28/09

"This writer is an idiot; 3D is a horrible fad!
Gamers epsecially you FPSers the last thing you want is a translucent dulled image of what your looking at especially if your tracking a target . the details are dulled with 3d because of overlapping lines so there goes the crisp picture of HD and good graphics and lets not forget the eyestrain and headaches.
Its a stupid fad, dont waste your money"

You what? haha...
With the active glasses, each frame will be displayed independantly on the TV, and each eye flipped between using LCD shutters in the glasses themselves, so, no ghosting/double images of any kind possible. Each eye gets a 100% seperate image.

I have seen the ghosting effect a couple of times, but with RealD for example, where its using polerisation technology in a circular fashion; I haven't seen any, and I've seen 3 3D films to date in RealD

By Gamer at 3:40 PM ON 12/29/09

You people are morons! I'm a 3D game artist and we've been playing with this stuff for weeks from the Sony guys, its insanely cool, trust me its not a fad. I remember HDTV and DVD and BlueRay and Plasma and the Airplane being a fad. Nothing is a fad when companies like Sony have enough money to pump into the technology, and make everyone who doesn't have one look like a poor loser. I thought it was a joke too, now its like I hate my stupid 2D HDTV. You'll all want one the moment it becomes the it thing to have.

By GK25Katie at 1:07 PM ON 02/04/10

I think that people have to sit relaxed, simply because the papers writing services will assist to create the custom communication and media essays of superb quality.


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