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SHIFT: What comes after iPhone 3.0?

iphone_2_3.jpgDVICE writers take a closer look at the latest tech trends in our weekly column, Shift.

Apple's unveiling of the third major iteration of the iPhone's software was extremely welcome news to anyone who uses the phone for anything more than calling. Pretty much every other aspect of the device got upgraded, even the Notes app, bringing existing features in line with current smartphones (e-mail search, finally!) and even creating some brand new ones (like in-app purchasing).

As an iPhone owner, now that I've heard about the coming upgrade it can't come fast enough. As many have mentioned, most of the "new" features really should have been part of the operating system in the first place. Cut-and-paste functionality infamously occupies the top of the list, but really, if the phone in my pocket is, right now, physically capable of A2DP Bluetooth streaming, why the hell can't it do it right now?

But there's another perspective if you take a few steps back from the upgrade. At the risk of sounding extraordinarily premature, if the bulk of iPhone 3.0 constitutes a software "cleanup," what will be left for Apple to do when it's time for iPhone 4.0? My answer after the jump, along with some advice for the Cupertino Crew.


Paradigm Shifts vs. Changes

The original iPhone — along with its OS — was rightly praised upon its debut as a breakthrough gadget, one that woke up the dozing cellphone industry with never-seen-before features like visual voicemail and the best touchscreen interface ever made for a portable device. When iPhone 2.0 came a year later, it capitalized on the emerging market for apps made specifically for the phone, introducing the term to legions of people who'd never used it before. The upgrade was a paradigm shift, elevating the iPhone from sleek cellphone to personalized playground, at the same time inspiring a lot of people to become software developers.

Now we have iPhone 3.0. It's welcome, certainly. I want to send photos through MMS (multimedia messaging system). I want to send people contact cards wirelessly. And if I were a developer I'd be excited about embedding a Google map directly in my app. But if iPhone 1.0 and 2.0 were huge events, iPhone 3.0 is the afterparty.


iPhone 4.0

That doesn't mean there's literally nothing left to do as far as the iPhone OS goes. Video recording comes to mind. The way the iPhone gives you alerts — always via a dialog box that appears in the middle of the screen — is often intrusive and annoying. Safari on the iPhone often refreshes pages for no reason at all. And as much as I believe Apple when it says battery life takes a huge hit when applications run in the background, there should still be exceptions (being able to launch a Web browser without quitting an app would improve many of them).

But again, all this is just more cleanup. It's all well and good to have the iPhone experience streamlined, but as far as breaking down barriers, inspiring innovation, and getting people excited about technology, the iPhone's pretty much done. Like successive versions of a video game (Resident Evil 5, anyone?), it can't hope to ever match the flavor of the early years.


The Next 'It' Gadget

Why does any of this matter? It doesn't, unless you're always looking for the next big technological innovation. The iPhone was the "It" gadget for a long time — and to a large extent still is — but iPhone 3.0 shows that its star is no longer on the rise. And with heavyweight competitors like Google and Palm entering the fray, it's going to be even harder to stand out.

This isn't to say Apple should stop upgrading the iPhone. It surely must (and will), but the company will have to attack a new category if it ever wants to shake the tech world to its foundations again. While Apple certainly has made its share of flops (the Newton, G4 Cube, and Apple TV come to mind), its history of creating breakthrough products that people actually want to buy is unquestionable. Personally, I would rather the company starts thinking about doing something with e-readers. Or maybe netbooks. Or digital picture frames. Or even robots.

The iPhone has earned Apple even more "innovator capital" than any other tech company. While upgrades are fine, even titillating, it shouldn't let other opportunities rust while polishing its shiniest toy.

 
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(19) Comments

AlexFury:
Sorry, to reply to the first poster.. Apple's success isn't so much from THEIR innovation, but taking something, re...More »


Comments

By bob at 8:20 PM ON 03/19/09

Apple's success comes from their innovation. That is why they can come up with ideas that ordinary people like me or you can't think of. That is why while you think there is nothing else they can do with the iphone, Apple is already hard at work coming up with bigger and better features.

By CORE at 9:28 PM ON 03/19/09

WOW. This article reads like Microsoft paid the author to formulate some kind of resistance toward something so revolutionary and then goes into his vision of the future. OH THE HORROR!! Apple hasn't even blown the lid off of what's to come down the line. If your still stuck in your contract that's understandable. You feel left out from the rest. Yeah us iphone users never bring it to the table. We take it with us where ever we go.

By Alex at 9:33 PM ON 03/19/09

Well. The only innovation was the marketing of existing stuff. Bringing together a lot of stuff that was all loose, pack it pretty and sell it. I saw a german phone prototype do what the iphone does, in 2002 (with the screen rotating with an accelerometer, multi touch, etc).

You cannot deny the beauty of the interface, and how they do it to work perfect or don't do it at all (video recording, for instance). They're great at that.

But, then again, innovation in a phone that doesn't allow to cut&paste or even run background applications without burning the battery is a very long shot.

I'm not capable of thinking any of that.

By R3 at 10:18 PM ON 03/19/09

The two most significant things that 3.0 may be missing would be as follows:
1. Turning the screen from profile to landscape while at ANY screen; and
2. Keeping the "bottom 4" placed "buttons" when you have something else open. (probably 'half-sizing' them!

I am committed to my Iphone and Apple, completely and irrevocably, and forever.

By Aricept at 10:42 PM ON 03/19/09

Many apps can, and do, launch a web browser within the application, specifically for the reasons you state. And with Apple's blessing - they're simply calling some of Safari's code. A much better solution than launching a whole new application, IMO.

By Anonymous at 11:30 PM ON 03/19/09

Actually, R3, iPhone 3.0 will have that on all core apps, read apple built. Third party developers cannot and should not be forced to do so. Further, Alex, you are write, they should have added copy and paste and universal search before now, as they are not terribly dificult to do. However the fact that many other phones can do many of the same things does not alter the fact that even though 3.0 doesn't bring that ridiculously many more features to the end user, it does bring them to the developer who will in turn bring them to the end user, it's not the features, it's the apps.

By jd1234 at 3:29 AM ON 03/20/09

The person who wrote this blog obviously has no idea what strategy is. It is often more important what you decide to not do then what you decide to do. Thank heavens Apple doesn't run about jumping at every change to make some money which would weaken their brand. Making a digital picture frame?!?!?!?! Are you an idiot? Read a strategy book.

By kenster at 12:24 PM ON 03/20/09

My problem with the iphone is that I need an adapter to use the Motorola S9-HD bluetooth stereo headphones that I recently bought. It would be nice to just be able to pair them and wear them...can't they do that? and if not why not? Can it be done with some sort of update such as 3.0?

By planet automatic at 5:19 PM ON 03/20/09

All we need from 3.0 now is, the iphone turns into a twinkies bar when my stomachs growling @ lunch time.The iphone is beautiful innovation/art trying to catch up/juggle with the patched pipeline of the corporate world. ...ANd artists are not always practical.

By Gidiyup at 5:35 PM ON 03/20/09

What was the point of this article? Apple is great at marketing and that is a good thing. Any successful company has to be successful at marketing their products. That's why they can charge a premium to get the Apple experience!

By Frank at 1:24 AM ON 03/21/09

Really Kenster? That's the reason you won't buy an iPhone? You're corky headphones won't work with it. Loser.

By DJtouch at 3:21 AM ON 03/21/09

Apple isn't going to go for another 'paradigm' shift until the technology exists to do it in a reasonably affordable manner. This isn't just device-technology, but network-technology.

There are a few very obvious features that will gather together to achieve the next paradigm shift:

short term:
* live video conferencing with low lag and good resolution
* television streaming (as in Korea) and/or a great flash package
* much improved voice-activated features (e.g., read my e-mail to me--a device that can do this for the blackberry was just released)

medium term:
* virtual projection keyboard
* in-device projection capabilities
* oled screen
* shift from cellnetwork to voip via wimax or some other similar technology

long term:
???

In short, it doesn't take a genius to figure out what sort of technology will be in the next true 'shift' version of the phone, although Apple's genius will be in not merely gathering the tech, but making its use intuitive.

Personally, I think the short-term version is capable of being made (at a reasonable price) right now, but I'm guessing Apple is going to hold off until 2010, given the economic climate.

I could see a medium-term vision phone on scene before 2014--the biggest things are getting oled cost down and creating alternative networks to break the oligopolistic hold of the domestic carriers.

But, if there's nothing lying around to facilitate a 'paradigm shift' don't expect Apple to force one--they aren't known for jumping the gun on these things, for good reason.

By Joe at 2:07 PM ON 03/21/09

Kenster - read up on A2DP stereo Bluetooth streaming. 3.0 has that included, so your headphones will work with 3.0 Update.

By roopull at 9:07 PM ON 03/22/09

Where should the iPhone go?
Smaller. It's HUGE. Other "smartphones" can do more with a smaller size... so should the iPhone. Call it the iPhone mini or something.

Physical keyboard.
It's a joke that you can't get a keyboard with an iPhone.

Variety.
Why just have one iPhone? They could make smaller decontented versions, fatter versions with keyboards (Touch Pro, anyone?) or even bigger ones to act as a netbook. Clearly, the OS can handle it.

Open it up to 3rd party apps OUTSIDE the quite regulated app-store. Being saddled with Safari is a shame.

As is, there isn't much the iPhone can do that other phones couldn't do the day the iPhone arrived.

By MSM at 5:23 PM ON 03/23/09

One of the more pathetic and superficial articles I've read of late.

By fhaq at 5:34 AM ON 03/26/09

It's amazing how a person get one apple device and suddenly they think they're "breaking the mold" and Steve Jobs is their savior. Get over yourself. "Ooooh, look at me. I have an iPhone, with a little i and a uppercase P. Whoo, I'm so original!" Yea, you and the millions and millions of other people.

By JIM at 6:42 AM ON 03/26/09

Oh come on Roopull, the iPhone is big for a reason. And that's because it has a gorgeous 3.5-inch QVGA screen with 262k colours. It used to have one of the biggest cellphone screen, now HTC has something with 3.8-inch and Toshiba's upcoming TG01 has a 4.0-inch high-res screen.

So the iPhone is not really the biggest smartphone. It's wider than most I admit (cause I personally feel it myself), but thinner than most. Total volume wise, it trumps a lot of smartphones actually. ;)

And Fhaq, you won't know until you've used the iPhone. If you aren't a user, then go down to an Apple store and try it. It may not have top-notch features list, but like all Apple products, there's soul and unrivalled ergonomics rarely found in products of similar categories, i.e. smartphones. ;)

By nulldevice at 8:50 AM ON 03/26/09

The thing about software development is, well, it takes time and it costs money. Saying "if the device is capable of doing it, why isn't it doing it right now?" is kinda like saying "you're capable of running a marathon, why aren't you doing it right now?" It requires resources to add features, even easily-supported ones. If you want to amke your target ship dates, sometimes a few things gotta give. Stereo Bluetooth I can understand. A bunch of the other features I can understand too. Copy-paste is a big oversight, though, but I can imagine based on their UI that implementing it in such a way that it fit and didn't consume a lot of system resources was a non-trivial issue. Not excusable, but understandable.

By AlexFury at 10:01 PM ON 03/27/09

Sorry, to reply to the first poster.. Apple's success isn't so much from THEIR innovation, but taking something, retooling an exterior (and sometimes an interior) and SAYING they came up with it. Case in point the iPod. Apple was about the 4th company to ever come out with an mp3 player. They did however have the best marketing for it.


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