


Touted as the future of reading when it debuted, the Amazon Kindle e-reader has been on sale for about a year. I want to know: How well did it do? Neither Amazon nor its PR agency is telling anyone how many paradigm-bursting Kindles it's sold. Since they won't say, I will: Amazon has sold 523,678 Kindle e-book readers.
How did I get this number? Through careful research: I talked to industry sources and publishing consultants, looked at other sales figures, compared the Kindle to similar products, and did a lot of math. 523,678 is an estimate, not the real sales number, but Amazon and its PR company don't dare refute it, since that would require them to release that number. Until they do, I say that, to date, Amazon has sold 523,678 Kindles.
For the full story on how I got this number, follow the Continue jump below.
Kindle-omics
So. 523,678 Kindles. Based on my investigation and some research others have done, here's how I got there:
Amazon and Sony each get their e-book reader display panels from Prime View International (PVI), a Taiwanese supplier. On April 18, DigiTimes, a daily news subscription service that covers the Taiwan tech market, reported that PVI had been shipping 60,000 to 80,000 e-book panels a month and was going to ship 120,000 display panels a month for the rest of the year.
Let's say the total falls right smack in the middle of that — 70,000. DigiTimes further reported that 60% of these panels went to Amazon, 40% to Sony.
The Kindle has been out since mid-November 2007. That's nearly 13 months worth of sales. Sixty percent of 70,000 is 42,000. 42,000 times 13 months equals is 546,000. Figuring Amazon keeps its inventory tight, I made up a number less than 546,000.
Ergo, Amazon has sold 523,678 Kindle e-book readers.
New Math
To shore up semi-mythical math, let's make another, completely independent calculation.
The Kindle has been Amazon's No. 1 seller in Electronics, or close to it, since it came out.
Kindle has generated 7,200 customer reviews. A couple of months ago, just behind the Kindle had been the Garmin 350 portable GPS navigator, which had around 2,900 reviews. An industry source told us Garmin sells hundreds of thousands of personal navigation devices (PNDs) through Amazon.
Comparing these speculative Kindle and Garmin 350 sales numbers with their customer review totals, therefore, it seems reasonable based on my knowledge of Garmin sales and other Amazon sales:review ratios that one out of every 80 buyers posts a customer review. 80 times 7,200 equals 576,600, which is in my 523,678 Kindle-sales ballpark.
So I still say Amazon has sold 412,678 523,678 Kindle e-book readers.
Amazon, prove me wrong.
By Man Overboard at 7:17 PM ON 01/01/09
I still prefer to do my reading the old fashioned way - you know with paper. I like the idea of turning pages and making dog ears.
By phayke at 10:02 PM ON 01/01/09
What about the fact that the Kindle still has that new/mysterious gadget quality to it, like the wii and iphone early on, and everybody wants to share their take when they have the latest thing, and the fact that it's Amazon's first venture into hardware. At least that's what popped into my head by the huge amount of reviews.
By Phigment at 3:35 PM ON 01/02/09
I like ebooks, I've had my RCA ebook for years. My very first ebook was the rocket ebook from neuvo media. Quite frankly the Kindle and Sony are way over priced. I'd rather spend $100 for a RCA Ebook at ebookwise any day.
By TR at 2:39 AM ON 01/03/09
well, if you had maybe correlated your figures with the early august press leak of 240,000 Kindles sold (http://www.techcrunch.com/2008/08/01/we-know-how-many-kindles-amazon-has-sold-240000/), then perhaps you could, you know, actually have some sense of accuracy in your calculation, which might bolster your attempts to implicitly call out Amazon for its production numbers. Let's do a little bit more back of the envelope math here: 240,000 over 8-9 months (report came in early august, and tracks from nov, 2007. giving a half a month lag on the data, let's put the number somewhere in the aforementioned range), which puts us at 26,667-30,000 Kindles/month. Let's just round that off and say 28,000. We're at 13 months just now, with a probable 10% increase over the last two months due to the holidays (times were tight), so if we calculate accordingly: (28,000*11)+(1.2*28,000*2)= 375,200. At $399 per unit, with a 50% revenue recoup, we're looking at somewhere around 74 million in revenue. Not the biggest cash cow for Amazon, but certainly well above what analysts predicted.
This does, however, beg the question: Does 375,000, or even 523,000, at all resemble a "paradigm bursting" technology? On the high end (pace DVICE), that's only half of the iPhone 3G's first week's opening sales. E-readers are nothing new to the market. They've been around since the late 90s as standalone devices, and have been readily available as software for far more popular handhelds such as the Palm. The success of the iPhone is mostly due to the fact that, despite the "fetish of style" arguments of detractors, it manages to meet technical challenges and consumer demands: visual voicemail, elegantly done music compatibility, 3rd-party app support. Its added features dovetail with the practices of consumers. I can download mp3s from my computer, where they would be stored anyway, and where I would do most of my listening anyway, onto my device. I can use it with telephone networks (may seem obvious, but it furthers my point). I can use it conveniently on the internet. So far, even the Kindle's primary function - providing reading material - doesn't interface with established infrastructure for acquiring text. I can't take a Kindle to a library and download a book (at least most libraries). I can't take it to a bookstore and plug in a new book for it. I can't use it for serious academic research (doesn't work with the online permissions systems of universities). One might counter by saying that all of these services will be provided by the internet, which may be the case in the long term. However, we have cheap enough high speed internet to provide these services, websites to distribute the materials, and a cheap enough e-reader to enable sales, and yet people still read books, newspapers, magazines, and journals. They visit libraries to do research, and they keep and store books at home and at work. The Kindle may sell more, but it will never supplant hard text. Not even the computer has done that completely.
By Chris at 12:58 PM ON 01/03/09
Despite the number of sales I think there will definitely always be a place for traditional books. Like when your in the bath! :)
By adt721 at 8:33 PM ON 01/03/09
I remember when digital cameras first came out and the guy at the camera store told me not to waste my money. Digital will never have the same quality that film has he told me. Well 15 years later Kodak and a few others are no longer making film or film cameras and the quality of digital is far better than film. The same will happen with ebooks. It started out slow and will pick up steam. In 10 years ebooks will out sell paper and in 15, paper will be a novelty. In some ways it’s already happening. Your reading the reviews here and not in a magazine or newspaper!
By Price at 6:33 PM ON 01/04/09
Bought a Kindle for my father (77yr. old) last Christmas and he loves it. Has talked three friends into buying (zoom the print size). I use it when I can get my hands on it, so does spouse. Bad key placement and uncomfortable holding positions are overcome by downloadability and battery life. What is not overcome is price. I would buy 2 more tomorrow but for cost. Now, added to the delay in my purchase is Amazon refusing to confirm or deny a 2.0 version. I will not spend ~$800 for last generation electronics. So I wait. Amazon needs to get a clue.
By Asgord at 10:02 AM ON 01/05/09
I read all the time..Im completely pleased with the kindle as a reading device i dont want to watch the internet on it or tie my shoe laces but i read on it all the time and recommend it to anyone that reads.. dont knock it till you try it..
By Revisorius at 6:12 PM ON 01/19/09
I love mine too, and I was a real book guy. Saved me the real dough in free reads of Gutenberg books I would have bought otherwise.
By Beowolff at 3:59 AM ON 08/08/09
Yeah...love my Kindle. It works great for me, even though here in Tennessee I'm near the fringe area of Amazon's touted Whispernet connection. The thing is light, portable, easy to figure out...and having all that book downloading ability at my fingertips is a blast.
And yeah, I'm a Kindle author as well, with already over nine books published for it. So I'll plug my books while I'm at it. lol! My latest; Yellow Wolf Running in White Snow! And action/adventure set out West in the 1950's. Hope you enjoy it.
Beowolff:
Yeah...love my Kindle. It works great for me, even though here in Tennessee I'm near the fringe area of Amazon's t...More »