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5 tech predictions from 1968 that were dead-on (and 5 that were completely nuts)
40 years ago, science fiction writer James R. Berry predicted what the future would look like on November 18th, 2008 — today. His piece for a 1968 issue of Mechanix Illustrated, "40 Years in the Future," made some impressive guesses, from flat-screen televisions to video conferencing. He also made a few understandable missteps: pollution-free air in cities, house paint that's always pristine, and — pardon me, ladies — the idea that women would still do little more than use a computer to plan recipes.
Click Continue to explore an amazing retro future that was wild, but isn't as far off as you would think.
1. Online Shopping
1968 PREDICTION "Instead of being jostled by crowds, shoppers electronically browse through the merchandise of any number of stores."
2008 REALITY For someone writing during a time with phone-in catalogs and super stores, it's amazing Berry foresaw an age of digital distribution and online ordering. Berry's version was still a bit more like a telephone ordering system with punch-in numbers, but the services provided by Amazon and iTunes make his 1968 prediction a 2008 reality.
2. The Rise of Home Computing
1968 PREDICTION "The single most important item in 2008 households is the computer… Computers also handle travel reservations, relay telephone messages, keep track of birthdays and anniversaries, compute taxes and even figure the monthly bills for electricity, water, telephone and other utilities."
2008 REALITY Can you imagine what the world would be like without computers? Berry really honed in on the connectivity of the technology, and how that connectivity would factor into our lives. As he foresaw, the computer would not only become our household hub, but also a powerful social and financial tool for every individual.
3. Laptop/Tablet Computers (and Email)
1968 PREDICTION "A business associate wants a sketch of a new kind of impeller your firm is putting out for sports boats. You reach for your attache case and draw the diagram with a pencil-thin infrared flashlight on what looks like a TV screen lining the back of the case."
2008 REALITY We don't use infrared flashlights to draw on laptop screens, but tablet computing is becoming more and more commonplace with the prevalence of touchscreen technology, and it's pretty common to see someone using a computer with a stylus. Likewise, designers and illustrators rely on computer tablets to create digital renderings. What does Berry's man from 2008 do when he's done drawing? He emails it to his business associate, just as we would today.
4. Space Tourism
1968 PREDICTION "Another vacation is a stay on a hotel satellite. The rocket ride to the satellite and back, plus the vistas of earth and moon, make a memorable vacation jaunt."
2008 REALITY We don't have space hotels exactly, unless you count the International Space Station. We do, however, have a budding space tourism industry that's sent seven people into orbit so far — first Dennis Tito in 2001, and recently Richard Garriott — with the promise of more regular orbital trips in the future. There's also Richard Branson's Virgin Galactic, which may just blow space tourism wide open.
5. Robot Labor
1968 PREDICTION "Robots are available to do housework and other simple chores."
2008 REALITY You won't come home to Rosie the robot from the Jetsons, but you can enter a house with a Roomba vacuuming your floors, or other robots mowing your lawn and cleaning your house's rain gutters. Cars are built by robotic arms, workers in Japan are greeted by robot receptionists, and robots help us explore under the sea and even other planets. It's a bit more simple on the domestic front than what Berry envisioned in the '60s, and yet it's also a rapidly expanding industry that seems to make another new step toward his vision every day.
6. 250 MPH Self-Driving Cars
1968 PREDICTION "You slide into your sleek, two-passenger air-cushion car, press a sequence of buttons and the national traffic computer notes your destination… The car accelerates to 150 mph in the city's suburbs, then hits 250 mph in less built-up areas…"
2008 FANTASY Not only are you still driving your own car, but going 250 MPH is a great way to get a ludicrous ticket — or killed. The idea of a massive network of self-driving vehicles is one constantly explored by science fiction — and one that's even been put into practice — but we're nowhere near an age where private vehicles are banned in favor of automated ones.
7. Domed, Climate-controlled Cities
1968 PREDICTION "You whizz past a string of cities, many of them covered by the new domes that keep them evenly climatized year round."
2008 FANTASY Ah, the dream of controlling the climate. It's especially appealing today, when scares of global warming and a planet ruined by our presence run rampant. But we still can't get the weather right two days in advance, and I won't even begin to try to wrap my head around how we could possibly cover a city with a giant fishbowl.
8. Modemixers
1968 PREDICTION "Giant transportation hubs called modemixers are located anywhere from 15 to 50 mi. outside all major urban centers… A major feature of most modemixers is the launching pad from which 200-passenger rockets blast off for other continents."
2008 FANTASY Berry's modemixer is like a subway station that also has a rocket ready to blast off to anywhere in the world. Really, it's something like any modern-day airport, but with a variety of ways to travel by air. We're still stuck with jets and prop-planes, in contrast to Berry's "200-passenger rockets… [supersonic transports] and hypersonic planes that carry 200 to 300 passengers…" and "slower jumbo jets" to handle shorter, intercontinental commutes.
9. A Four Hour Work Day
1968 PREDICTION "The average work day is about four hours. But the extra time isn't totally free… A jobholder's spare time is used in keeping up with the new developments — on the average, about two hours of home study a day.
2008 FANTASY Ha! Don't we wish. The 9-5 grind is still alive and well. Maybe it's for the best — who would want two hours of homework to do when they get home? Although, really, we all probably spend more time than that every night keeping up with pop culture affairs on the Internet and by watching TV.
10. Automated Doctor Visits
1968 PREDICTION "Medical examinations are a matter of sitting in a diagnostic chair for a minute or two, then receiving a full health report."
2008 FANTASY When you go to the doctor, what happens? Tests are run that take weeks to get results from, you have to see a myriad of specialists — one for an ear, say, and another altogether for your eye — and it can all be very expensive and, at its worst, confusing. Out of all of Berry's predictions for November 18th, 2008, an easy-and-quick diagnosis is probably the most attractive. Well, except for only working four hours each day.
Read the rest of James R. Berry's "40 Years in the Future" here. (via Rocketboom)
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By JEFF at 8:50 PM ON 11/18/08
Whereas the automated Dr. visit is not a reality at present, it is not far off. There is surgery at a distance and robotic surgery using remote surgeons. The romote doctor for some conditions could be reality in the near future.
By ljlntx at 9:00 PM ON 11/18/08
Domed, Climate-controlled Cities:
I don't know, Mall of America, Vegas Resorts, I would say we have a few minitures going.
By Time Tracker at 6:11 AM ON 11/19/08
Could #9 be the #9 John and co. were referring to in Revolution #9? ;)
By ryback at 7:02 AM ON 11/19/08
The four our work day is spot on. I work four hours a day and surf the web for the remaining three and a half.
By JackWoods at 10:45 AM ON 11/19/08
Wow,that makes perfect sense to me.
jess
http://www.privacy.es.tc
By grammarcop at 10:45 AM ON 11/19/08
Homed in.
By shawn at 10:45 AM ON 11/19/08
The internet related "predictions" were easy to call because the technology was in place to develop the internet in the 60's. Lobbyists and the government were responsible for holding it back. Similarly, space hotels and automatic cars would be available today if (suprise suprise) the goverment would not stifle development of these things.
By grammarcop at 10:48 AM ON 11/19/08
Wow. Three simulposts!
By dormouse at 10:49 AM ON 11/19/08
check dubai/uae for domed city
By lovely at 11:02 AM ON 11/19/08
i wonder if they predicted the real doll...
By scubba at 11:08 AM ON 11/19/08
Govt doesn't stifle development.. it moves the really good ideas under DARPA, and develops it with a hint of 'population control'. I look at some of these predictions, and the thing that keeps some of the greater ones back is they are TOO GOOD of an idea. In a world that uses fear to move political agendas, there will always be 'threats'.. having a domed city for example, would eliminate some of that, or at least force the threat to come from within
By Dave at 11:33 AM ON 11/19/08
I would argue that #9 is true in that most people I know only work 4 hours a day, and spend the rest of the time surfing the internet, checking emails, etc. I wouldn't call it study as such, but it's by and large the same activity.
By Lovesmydr at 11:34 AM ON 11/19/08
Actually, my Doctor does diagnose over email with me. I've not had a problem yet, it doesn't cost a thing and I'm always better with the medication he calls in for me to CVS. The writer isn't that far off.. All my medical records are online and I can refil a script by just a click of the mouse. I just tell the doc if he should call it into the drug store, mail it to me or I'll pick it up.. Very easy this way. I get my test results back in my own tome on my own computer when I feel like looking them up or, he calls if he sees I haven't logged in.
By D.G.B. at 11:37 AM ON 11/19/08
We'd have the 250 mph cars with automated direction finders if Detroit didn't have Washington by the shorts.
By Lukas at 11:45 AM ON 11/19/08
The only ones that they got right were pretty obvious that would happen. Like who couldn't predict online shopping during the tech boom. The other ones were wildly off. not impressive in the least.
By JChen at 11:45 AM ON 11/19/08
#7 is going to be reality. The capital of Kazakhstan will have a giant indoor city that preserves summer all year long: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/6165267.stm
By Honour Chick at 11:47 AM ON 11/19/08
great predictions
By still badass at 11:54 AM ON 11/19/08
We need a robot that cuts grass at various pitches, has a leaf blower and mulcher and brings you your beer, now thats progress.
By Dave T at 11:57 AM ON 11/19/08
To all you armchair quarterbacks complaining about his predictions. Take a look at today's tech and make 10 predictions about what we'll have in 40 years. Let's see how many of yours are as close. I think the predictions are pretty good for 1968.
By George at 12:02 PM ON 11/19/08
@Grammarcop - Um, no, it's "honed in". "Home" is not a verb. Way to live up to your name.
@Lukas - Maybe practical robots and a computer in every house were obvious predictions, but I hardly think online shopping and tablet computers were.
By CydeSwype at 12:11 PM ON 11/19/08
4 hour work day....I think we're closer to that than we realize. How many people actually work 8 hours at their job (atleast in the tech sector). It may be more like 6 hours of work and 2 of reading, but there's more and more to read and keep up with every day. I'm a bit skewed being a product manager where it's my job to keep up with the news, but most of us spend plenty of time reading the blogs we subscribe to, digg, etc. Of all the things that are still fantasy, I think the 4 hour work day is the closest to becoming reality.
By PeterD at 12:17 PM ON 11/19/08
@George - Try and learn your english please.
Home - noun, adjective, adverb, verb, homed, hom⋅ing.
–verb (used without object)
20. to go or return home.
21.(of guided missiles, aircraft, etc.) to proceed, esp. under control of an automatic aiming mechanism, toward a specified target, as a plane, missile, or location (often fol. by in on): The missile homed in on the target.
22. to navigate toward a point by means of coordinates other than those given by altitudes.
By Tug at 12:17 PM ON 11/19/08
I could go for a four hour work day... :]
By George at 12:23 PM ON 11/19/08
@Peterd - sorry, not enough caffeine. You're right, I wasn't thinking of that definition of "home" (as in "homing pigeon"). I was thinking of "hone" as in "sharpen".
For what it's worth, even though some people vehemently regard "honed in" or "hone in" as wrong, dictionaries disagree on the subject:
http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hone+in
Again, sorry for that.
By waybacmac at 12:57 PM ON 11/19/08
I have to disagree on Point 8. Berry got it right about modemixers, which he did properly call transportation hubs. I don't believe Berry meant to restrict his idea only to a variety of air transport modes but to the emergence of today's extra large international airports. For example, while it may not have rocket ships, the international airport at Frankfurt Germany does have its own integrated railroad, subway, and bus facilities. Plus taxis, limos, shuttles, and even bicycles, not to mention Private motor vehicles. It has on-site hotels, restaurants, bars, shopping mall, and many, many more shops selling almost anything. A small city unto itself serving millions of travelers. The rockets will come in due course.
By 4hourwork week at 1:14 PM ON 11/19/08
4 hour work week is a possibility....read the book by Timothy Ferris who did it and a lot more people are trying it out. So its not completely outrageous
By CoolProducts at 1:34 PM ON 11/19/08
I wonder if we wait another 40 yrs if those last 5 would be any truer!
By Edge at 2:03 PM ON 11/19/08
I wish for a 4 hour work week everyday. Even a 4 hour work day would be awesome.
By mrgtb at 3:05 PM ON 11/19/08
Were always getting predictions like this. Yeah right!
By cassie at 4:37 PM ON 11/19/08
this would make life easier...
hope it would come true...
Anyways, i found this interesting site.
Why don't you check on it.
http://ihatebecky.com/
By dblagbro at 5:13 PM ON 11/19/08
sorry, but you have to move "domed cities" one to the reality column... unless you've never heard of the Las Vegas strip which is now covered and more of a pedestrian walkway than road. also, dubai, the indoor mall-ski-area-hotel-casino-condo-office-complex-etc is pretty much a city.
not to mention, didn't st louis or somewhere mid-west located create an indoor walk way that gets you to most of the buildings in the city?
also, the airports of today are like the modemixers imagined in years past. only rather than rockets, jets move us at hundreds of miles-an-hour.
which also brings up that those jets pretty much fly themselves these days... and those who are actually human controlled are just human's listening to what they're being told by other humans who are just listening to computers... that's pretty much computer controlled to me.
and finally, as an engineer working primarily from home, i spend about 4 hours a day actually working and 2-3 hours reading up on new technologies - when i look at my co-workers who actually put in 8+ hours a day at a desk physically "in the office", when you subtract their web browsing time i still think 4 hours a day is spot on for the average american worker...
so, i'm saying, most of these prediction have come to be in my view.
-d
By Hijo del Santo at 6:02 PM ON 11/19/08
9-5??? give that job!!! I work from 9 to 7 when it's a good day, and most jobs here at mexico do so
By ntopics at 8:36 PM ON 11/19/08
This is incredible to hear that someone can think of such inventive ideas. Then after reading about ideas from science-fiction writer James R. Berry
engineers actually build the ideas. Some people are truly amazing.
thanks from Tony
By Meh at 1:21 AM ON 11/20/08
GO CENSORSHIP through bad documentation!
I was going to comment on this post but since my comment did not agree with the posting, I got this error:
Your comment submission failed for the following reasons:
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By Anonymous at 2:03 AM ON 11/20/08
I think Stanley Kubrick got it right in his vision of the future. I think we're the ones who got it wrong. If the government did not interfere with, and restrict development, we would be where Kubricks vision took us. There are so many diverse minded individuals coming up with so many new technologies and programs in the field of robotics, space flight, medicine and computing, not to mention the automobile industry, which is practically OWNED still by the oil industry.
As someone else pointed out earlier, the government has been holding us back in regard to just about anything that has to do with helping us evolve as a species, both technologically and socially. Go to any major japanese city and they almost seem futuristic compared to our own. The skyline alone of many of these cities looks like something out of a future tech magazine.
let alone what is going on in the every day lives of the average japanese citizen. All sorts of robots running around everywhere, while we basically sell them as toys at radioshack. Androids who look like human beings, while we basically restrict such development to animatronics in films, actually we've moved forth to CGI now so they aren't even physically tangible to us.
Other nations develop advanced technology for PRACTICAL purposes, the united states develops it first and foremost for ENTERTAINMENT purposes. That is why we trail behind other advanced nations in terms of development in most areas of science and technology. I mean we can't even adopt solar technology on a wide scale basis because it may 'hurt the economy' a little initially, even though it would pay off majorly in the long term.
The reason this is the case is because other nations which employ such advancements have something do not. A quasi socialistic system. There is nothing wrong with some socialist checks and balances, especially in a nation of 300+ million humans. It might even get things done to have some socialist programs set in place in the area of technology and the implementation of more of it into our daily lives. Maybe Obama will help to bring us closer to all this.
But one this is for certain, we are not going to get any further to those more fantastical predictions till we eliminate poverty altogether. I mean walking down the street with my 'smart clothing' communicating with 10 people wirelessly at a time, while a homeless man in rags begs me to save his life, sort of ruins the effect.
By denny at 3:05 AM ON 11/20/08
I could go for a four hour work day... :]
By ken at 3:07 AM ON 11/20/08
great predictions
By wally at 3:10 AM ON 11/20/08
I wish for a 4 hour work week everyday. Even a 4 hour work day would be awesome.
By The Manta Dude at 9:24 AM ON 11/20/08
if the church wouldn't of held back the discovery of the book press his predictions would've just been hystorical fact .
and a 4 hour workday would be great . The thing is he who studies gets smarter and he who gets smarter than the people behind the gouvernements is a threat ... in case u haven't noticed yet , there's more truth in movies (books) than in the news , and movies (books) are plausible deniable ...
By Peter at 2:43 PM ON 11/20/08
WebMD anyone?
That last prediction could be interpretted to infer that patients can use a computer to diagnose themselves from home in a matter of very few minutes.
By Foxdie at 3:59 PM ON 11/20/08
Interestingly, all of his failed predictions are areas where there is high Government regulation and intervention. We might very well have 250mph auto-cars, maybe some equipped with hover capabilities, if it wasn't for Government vehicle and road regulations. If it weren't for excessive taxes and regulation of industries, we might have the 4 hour work day (or at least less than 8) as well. Other countries work less than 8 hours in a day.
By moodswings at 8:56 PM ON 11/21/08
This is so crazy! I never would have imagined that we would be buying almost anything from home. Heck, I still remember card catalogues at the library! They seemed endless, and now we can find so much more electronically. Thanks for sharing this!
-Elizabeth Bighorse http://www.moodswingsonthenet.com/
By sam at 7:51 PM ON 11/22/08
@PeterD - BZZT. the expression is "honed in", it's a figure of speech well known to anyone who reads English regularly - http://www.thefreedictionary.com/honed
Nothing better than a know-it-all-who is wrong :)
Also I agree he gets 1/2 credit for #8 9 and 10. Wonder if this guy is still alive - I think everyone should write down their own predictions for 2048 (in your blogs) and see how well you do. Mine center on post-apocalyptic disaster, but try to keep positive.
By hypercog at 3:12 PM ON 12/25/08
As one who was, in 1968, an avid electronics experimenter and all-around technophile, and a reader of Pop Mech, Pop Sci, Pop Elec, Sci Am, etc., at the time, I can assure everyone that none of these 'amazing' insights originated with the Mr. Berry. Many stories appeared in the tech magazines of the 1950s & '60s that described such technologies; they seemed inevitable to those who were familiar with the state-of-the-art. Mr. Berry just put it all together in a good narrative.
The problem is: the smart people who envision such technological potential -- by their generally optimistic nature -- seriously underestimate the stupidity &/or ignorance of those who actually determine the course of human events.
I remember the optimism generated by JFK's challenge to the country to strive to achieve the pinnacle our capabilities. And, up until 1968, we were at least getting started in that direction. The schools were emphasizing math & science (and those students created the computer revolution of the '70s & '80s), and we were going to send a man to the moon any day now. This very Xmas day we're celebrating the 40th anniversary of the first orbiting of the moon. That was awesome cool at the time, and we were just getting started ... we thought.
But, then, in one year, MLK, RFK, Democracy and Optimism were killed. And Nixon was elected. And then he was re-elected, even though Watergate had already hit the fan.
President Carter tried to restore a healthy respect for scientific progress (after all, he does have a doctorate in Nuclear Physics). He even pushed through Congress & signed a bill to reduce dependence upon oil by 20% in the next 10 years. To lead the way he installed a substantial solar-voltaic array on top of the Whitehouse.
But, then, Reagan was elected. One of the first things he did to pay back his constituency was to remove the solar panels and repeal Carter's Energy Bill. Not to mention the start of the war on Unions and the Middle Class, and the start of the deregulatory environment of Reaganism that directly led to our current financial crisis.
And, so, here we are now at the end of the most aggressively anti-science government since the mid-1500s. How's that faith-based approach working for everybody now, eh?
But I won't dwell on the misery caused by the anti-intellectuals of history. Let's just not let them be in charge anymore.
I have a (perhaps irrational) new hope because We the People were somehow smart enough to vote in a new Administration that fully realizes the benefit of a Reality-based approach to governance.
Need Hope? Just look at who Obama has appointed as secretary of energy: ahttp://berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2008/12/15_obama.shtml
I hope my hope is not misplaced.
By hypercog at 3:29 PM ON 12/25/08
Whoops. That last URL was a bit mangled. Sorry.
http://berkeley.edu/news/media/releases/2008/12/15_obama.shtml
By I144Q at 9:35 AM ON 12/26/08
First, I have to say I have my doubts about your age claim Hypercog. Some of your recount of history is somewhat off and the use of some of you vernacular is even more out of place.
You started your comments off well with your chronicle of magazine history in the 50s and 60s. However due either to the loathing in your heart, you let your mind become clouded with misconception of the real truth or you let those in the academia world mislead you down the road of misinterpretation.
There were far too many inaccurate perceptions in your post to focus on them all. Personally, I would count eight historical errors and 3 down right ignorant statements. I am sorry, that is the only way I can state it, not knowing you in person.
I will take the time to focus on one statement. Not in the hope to change your mind, but in the hope to tell the truth for those who are not sure what to believe. You stated and I quote; “But I won't dwell on the misery caused by the anti-intellectuals of history. Let's just not let them be in charge anymore.” The misery caused in our past was not the actions of anti-intellectuals, but people like you, who hate anything and everything that is not focused on the center of the universe you like to call yourself. The world does not center around one individual, sorry to bust your bubble. Very few intellectuals have ever been -in charge-. The intellectuals are the ones creating the possibilities for the rest of us to live out our dreams and fight for those who can not fight for themselves and in part if not whole, give you the right to voice your opinion, however wrong it may be. You clearly stated you are miserable and I am sorry you feel this way. However I can’t help but think you like being miserable and your goal is not to help everyone be happy but to bring as many people as possible into the bottomless pit of despair with yourself. I have just one word for you and that is -Optimism-.
Don’t let others tell you what is right and what is wrong. For the young or uninformed readers, please read and study everything you can on a given subject before you act or make comments based on other people’s perception of fact or truth. Like the poster Hypercog, don’t let your tongue give you away for who you really are.
Speak from your mind, not your heart. Especially if your heart has no love.