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SHIFT: 4 ways iPhone will kick Android's ass
The next year is going to be fun.
A month from now, the Android-powered T-Mobile G1 will go on sale, along with all the Android apps in the online Android Market store. Having played with the G1 for a half hour or so on Tuesday, my reaction is — YAWN!
Don't get me wrong, the G1 isn't a bad phone. But it's kind of like seeing Toby Hall as Truman Capote in Infamous right after Philip Seymour Hoffman won an Oscar for playing him in Capote — good, but I've seen it already. It doesn't matter how good or even how bad the G1 is; its introduction, along with the iPhone, changes how we look at cellphones. Suddenly it's all about the operating system.
And it just happens Apple and Google have completely different philosophies concerning their varying cellphone ecosystems, Apple with its usual paranoiac digital dictatorship and Google with its anyone-can-play Android anarchy. Are we looking at a replay of the ultimately lopsided late 1980's battle between Windows vs. Mac OS? Follow the Continue link to find out.
The parallels between Android vs. iPhone/Windows vs. Mac may not be perfect, but the feeling of déjà vu is as palpable as post-coital musk. Like Microsoft, Google doesn't make hardware. As a result, it will have dwindling control over the hardware it's implemented on and the applications developed for it. As a result, some Android phones will barely rise to the level of mediocrity and unvetted apps could contain unwelcome surprises.
The iPhone and its software are more tightly integrated and make for cooler products and a better experience, and its applications are likely to work better. Like Windows, Android is likely to be widely adopted into other cellphones and portable media players (à la the iPhone's OS on the iPod Touch). As more and more devices adopt Android, iPhone's advantage, influence and importance, even with a 10-million-unit head start, could begin to erode as Apple's PC share did in the early 1990s.
But in this version of the battle, Apple holds a key advantage: iTunes.
It's the Content, Stupid
Apple wasn't in the content business in the 1980s, and Steve Jobs wasn't the largest shareholder of one of the industry's largest media conglomerates. Today, iTunes is the Wal-Mart of the downloadable music and video business. Numerous concerted attempts have been made by the most powerful players in Hollywood and Silicon Valley to topple iTunes, and all have failed miserably. Remember PlaysForSure?
Amazon will be Google's content partner for DRM-free music and video. Amazon's library doesn't match iTunes (yet), and it's unlikely to get ABC or ESPN television or Disney movie content, but it's not that hard to see how Amazon/Android could chew a sizable chunk out of iTunes' content hegemony in a year or two, though it's doubtful they could really challenge Apple as the leader in the field.
But it's also easy to see how this could all go horribly wrong for Google, even if Apple does nothing.
It's the Desktop Application, Stupid
Google's first problem is iTunes — not the online store, the desktop software. Online store, media manager and sync, all in one application. Astoundingly, there is no analogous Android desktop app. Consumers can cruise Amazon and download music and movies to their heart's content, but how do they get everything on and off their Android device? (And don't tell me all the music and movies you buy on the phone will stay on the phone — even Apple isn't that restrictive.)
Yes, there's Windows Media Player, or G1 owners can use some the other third-party media management application. Beyond that, you can drag and drop. But the mass market craves ease of use, and that would be the mass market Android needs to attract to just level the playing field with the iPhone. Relying completely on imperfect existing third-party applications instead of a tailored Android application that integrates Amazon's music and video offerings, isn't just plain dumb, it's a horribly missed opportunity for both Amazon and Google.
It's the Carrier, Stupid
Android's second challenge is its initial carrier partner. T-Mobile has around 30 million subscribers, less than half as many as AT&T, which shrinks the G1's potential customer base. Plus, to download music and especially video content right to the phone you'll need 3G service. T-Mobile will have 27 3G markets up and running by year's end. AT&T has more than 300 3G markets.
Of course, Android phones won't be ghettoized at T-Mobile. Sprint will have its own Android phone sometime next year. But Verizon has committed itself to the Linux LiMo cellphone OS. Splitting the market, with the two smallest carriers carrying Android phones and the two largest carrying phones with a different cell OS, divides the marketplace to Apple's advantage.
It's the Competition, Stupid
Third, because Android is open, there's nothing to stop other online media moguls — Rhapsody, Napster, Pandora, Netflix, et al. — from creating their own access and player applications for Android. So instead of Apple facing two monolithic and dangerous competitors in Google and Amazon, Apple will continue to face the existing unruly and uncoordinated mob of iTunes competitors. As usual, united they aren't, so divided they'll fail, which puts us right back where we started: Apple continuing to dominate.
And this is all assuming Apple does nothing. Yeah, this is going to be fun.
By Mark Murphy at 9:16 PM ON 09/25/08
Well, as an Android evangelist, let me offer a few counterpoints.
The iPhone is on track to sell something like 10 million devices this year. As a single device, that's awe-inspiring. It is also approximately 1% of the global mobile device marketplace. Why? Because smartphones aren't huge sellers -- so-called "feature phones" make up the bulk of sales.
I have it on good authority that Apple isn't interested in feature phones. I also have it on good authority that Android is headed to feature phones. There is plenty of fragmentation in the feature phone OS marketplace; Android has every possibility of carving out a nice chunk of that market and, in aggregate, dwarf the iPhone. Like with the iPod in the MP3 player space, the iPhone may well dominate the high-end smartphone market; Android may fare better than iPhone overall, though.
You also betray a bit of US bias, particularly in your section on carriers. T-Mobile is the #4 carrier in the US; Deutsche Telekom (T-Mobile's parent) is pretty big in Europe, bigger than AT&T is in the US.
Moreover, you seem to assume a level of exclusivity that I don't believe is warranted. Today, AT&T sells about a dozen smartphones besides the iPhone. Unless AT&T's contract with Apple specifically precludes them from touching Android, there is nothing to prevent AT&T from selling Android devices as well. Also remember that carriers don't make phones; handset makers do. So while Verizon is not actively pursuing Android at this time (as far as has been publicly stated), it won't take Verizon much effort to hop on the Android wagon if they choose to down the road. Contrast this with the iPhone exclusivity deal -- unless that clause lapses or gets re-negotiated, Apple's the one who has locked itself into a single carrier per market.
With respect to content and iTunes and such, again, you seem to be focusing solely on the T-Mobile G1. Many, if not most, Android devices will not be sold as MP3 player replacements, just as many, if not most, mobile devices are not sold as MP3 player replacements today. Somehow, despite this, a billion such devices are sold each year. While there are probably few iPhone users who have separate iPods, there are lots and lots of mobile device users who have separate MP3 players.
None of this is saying that Android will "beat" iPhone. Rather, Android and iPhone will co-exist, somewhat competing in some segments (e.g., high-end smartphones) and orthogonal in others (e.g., Android feature phones). This, of course, doesn't help bloggers who wish to set up iPhone-vs.-Android smackdowns...
By Weebork at 9:25 PM ON 09/25/08
There is great similarity in why Google will fail against the iPhone as the Zune failed against the iPod. For the latter, there wasn't anything really that different from the iPod that the Zune had to offer that compelled consumers to switch away from something that was already established and proven to be a good product.The Zune was, essentially, a "look and feel" to the iPod with some slight differences. (How's that for irony?)
So is the same with the Google phone. There really isn't anything that novel and different between the two phones. Consumers will take the position of sticking to the iPhone for the same reasons why they stuck to the iPod. Certainly there will be plenty of sales for the Google phone, as people will be drawn to certain aspects of it, but no way will it gain on or overtake the iPhone.
By me at 11:58 PM ON 09/25/08
yeah what they said
By Quiglag at 12:36 AM ON 09/26/08
You can not compare correctly to the iPod/Zune battles. With phones you are locked into a carrier, with mp3s you have many many choices for music.
Most people only buy the phones their carrier offers, and few jump ship. Who will win depends a lot on how many carriers will offer the phone. I have a feeling the Android will get to Verizon before the iPhone does.
By itisnot_me at 3:29 AM ON 09/26/08
yes there is not desktop sync like itunes for the android and there might not be for at least a few months. seeing how google and tmobile want to invite 3rd party developers to get in on some of the action. i do see this as an act of laziness on there part. but no one said that there was not a way to get the pictures and music off or on the phone itself. as seen in this link of the highly possible g1 manual.
engadget. com/photos/t-mobile-g1s-getting-started-manual/1057820/
and yes the android is open and can have anyone make apps for the platform itself. but this could be both a good thing and a bad thing all together. first there could be much more apps and better apps that people could enjoy instead of google just saying no that people can not make apps and not come up with a legit answer of why they booted it. second there are going to be people out there that are going to make apps that will hurt you or your phone. that is why this is a community based app market. if it is a bad app it will be reported and likely removed for the sake of humanity.
i totally embrace the other companies to make there apps for the phone. i use pandora and would choose it over any radio station out there. i never listen to the radio in my car and if i do i just listen for the traffic. if these companies make there own apps it make for a better phone experience. think about it download movies and watch them instead of waiting for them in the mail.
android itself is just a software and google most likely won't get into the whole hardware part of it. that is the whole point. a software to make phones cheaper so that we as consumers don't have to pay for it with our soul.
it is too late to be writing more i am off to bed
By itisnot_me at 3:34 AM ON 09/26/08
btw i still like dvice i check it on a regular bases. haha
By -F. at 3:38 AM ON 09/26/08
4 reasons I'd prefer Android over the iPhone:
It's the Content, Stupid
Android has DRM-free music. Which means I can listen to it anywhere I want, in any way I want.
It's the Desktop Application, Stupid
The iPhone is bound to iTunes. If iTunes happens to run slowly, or crash your computer, or disagrees with you for other reasons, you're basicly screwed.
It's the Carrier, Stupid
I'm not sure about the US, but around here you're locked to a single provider, and it's not even the most popular one. At least Android is planned to launch on multiple phones and carriers.
It's the Competition, Stupid
Since Android is open, we can expect a lot of good third party apps and modifications. The iPhone has got great killer apps like Intelliscreen, but because they are so restrictive you'll have to go through the jailbreaking process before you'll get to use it.
By Phantomgladiator at 4:32 AM ON 09/26/08
Please note: Android is an OS (software) and the iPhone is Hardware, therefore Android won't beat the iPhone when it moves to feature phones, it will beat the Mac OS.
I'm glad Apple is not interested in feature phones. I hope they focus their attention on the iPhone and make it the best phone they can make.
I'm also excited about Android's Open Source because it will help bring innovation into the market. However, I do hope Google employs some kind of filtering system because as Android grows, the phones it will be included in will become more expensive and it won't help me if a mal. app. is removed from the store after it killed my $500+ phone.
A few other quick points:
*DRM-free music = iTunes Plus
*Would bet iTunes to be more solid than any other third party desktop app that might come out for Android in the future.
*The iPhone won't be exclusive to AT&T forever, as the Razr before it, you will see the iPhone popping out everywhere.
Overall I liked the article and comments so far (no fanboys yet) and encourage competition which is ultimately better for us consumers.
By pjv at 4:39 AM ON 09/26/08
About the syncing: The G1 manual on pdf-page 27 clearly states that you can connect to your phone through USB mass storage: http://support.t-mobile.com/knowbase/root/public/tm30235.pdf . If that doesn't suit you you can take out the Sdcard and put it in your laptop. This is much better than having some proprietary desktop app that may or may not work imho. I'm pretty sure there'll even be a way to open a shell to the phone, as is the case with the emulator atm. So drop the "no-sync" myth.
By Melv at 6:46 AM ON 09/26/08
google should come out with their own device
By EnOne at 8:14 AM ON 09/26/08
It's not about the operating system. That's a PDA. It's about how good a phone it is, you know, making phone calls. It seems the more they add to a phone the worse it becomes at making calls.
By TheOriginalGiga at 10:46 AM ON 09/26/08
I will admit the Iphone can be impressive, but for those of us who have an IQ higher than 75, we will defiantly be able to handle a phone that doesn't have an automatic sync. As for Itunes, it is a large collection of movies, music and podcasts, but when it boils down to it, how many people REALLY watch full movies on their phone? Or use it as an MP3 player?
As for the operating systems, with an open source OS and the millions of programmers out in the world, we'll see many useful applications and for the most part FREE, and we're not just talking the types that turn your phone into an electronic beer... Also with an open source OS, hardware manufacturers can custom tailor the OS to their phone, utilizing the full capability of the hardware, can we say that about the Iphone OS? Imagine if you will, having a phone for your 2 years and it's time to get a new phone. No more worrying if the apps you have on it are compatible with your new phone, or learning curve trying to figure out where everything is located, you're not limited to what manufacturer you can buy, just buy the phone you like and install the apps that you love.
Will android be an Iphone killer? Of course not, but it will offer us who want the capability to chose a phone that we can customize and doesn't have a locked down OS.
As for the analogy between Windows and Mac, which is more prevalent in the work environment? But also look on what's happening with the market, Mac are making a come back.
By itsnot_me at 1:57 PM ON 09/26/08
oh and btw the idea of android is to take windows mobile out of game of os on the smartphones and probably all together. yes it will compete with iphone in some ways more than others but the main goal is to take out microsoft.
By screenname at 2:00 PM ON 09/26/08
IT'S THE OPENNESS STUPID!
Google only provided a software framework, and that framework is (nearly) open and extensible (or contractible if so desired), by anyone with a computer and a cursory knowledge of application development. Contrast this with the supremely closed M$FT Zune and the (mostly) closed iPhone. Android is FREE, and unless prior agreements prevent, any manufacturer can use it on their phones. This is a monumental difference between the iPod/Zune and iPhone/Android battles. It's not like Apple is going to start letting any manufacturer use their OS for free, because they make money by selling OS licensing. Furthermore, the content argument the author makes is seriously flawed. On your iPhone, Apple controls the content. You pay for it, and then Apple will let you use it. On your Android phone, you control the content. You get your content any way you see fit, legal or not, and then you decide if it should belong on your phone. Which do you think an increasingly-technologically-savvy user base would prefer?
IT'S THE ADVERTISEMENTS STUPID!
Google does not currently and will not in the future make money by manufacturing phones or selling music. Google makes money by selling advertisements. And they do this better and on a much larger scale than anyone else. I promise you that Apple will not in my lifetime be picking at Google's advertising/search market share. In the meantime, Apple continues to have plenty of competitors in its music sales sphere - just today MySpace announced FREE and DRM-FREE access to hundreds of thousands of songs from major record labels, all paid for with ad revenue. It seems the days of paying $.99 per song will not last much longer.
---
You have Google entering into Apple's marketplace, and what is the risk to Google? They have only invested development time into Android. They are not on the hook for unsold products, unlike Apple, and they don't have to pay for research or development into the next big thing. Apple should be, and I'm quite sure is, very scared about the whole situation.
By hasselfree at 2:20 PM ON 09/26/08
I think I phones and i pods are compeltlly overated and if people would open their eyes they would see that t mobile has phones way better than the i phone for example nokia N series check it out I phone has nothing on that phone it may be more expensive but than again its not restrictive as the i phone
By hmind at 4:42 PM ON 09/26/08
I don't think they are even meant to be competition. The iPhone was created for ease of use, the G1/Android is more of a open-source phone for those who want less restricted content and know what they are doing.
By reader at 5:15 PM ON 09/26/08
OMG, you are such an apple fanboy!
By dvicer at 7:36 PM ON 09/26/08
Dear Stewart Wolpin, please get out of bed with Steve Jobs. You are totally brainwashed to the biggest marketing campaign in the world. Many of your claims and assumptions are false. Thanks.
By USER at 10:12 AM ON 09/29/08
HAHAHA. What a tool this guy is. I wonder how much Apple has agreed to underwrite SciFi television.
By dReader at 1:31 PM ON 09/29/08
As much as I agree with you on some points it seems you forgot who won the Mac vs. PC battle. So if your analogy holds true the iPhone is in trouble.
By Al at 8:58 PM ON 09/29/08
I'm always amazed at how quickly a product review turns into personal attacks and irrational dislikes. I'd prefer an objective view of each software or hardware in question rather than the rants I see against apple and other posts.
By unlock iphone at 8:34 AM ON 10/01/08
I have Apple products, but iPhone is so cool. Would like to try android thing also.
By Aegis at 5:18 PM ON 10/02/08
"I wonder how much Apple has agreed to underwrite SciFi television."
I rarely see Apple products on display in the movies and shows, but I do see a lot of Dell and Alienware (Dell again).
I don't believe that the G1 will compete effectively with the iPhone. And for goodness sake, let's end the carrier locks! The ONLY reason I don't have an iPhone is A, T, and T.
By memesmorph at 1:35 AM ON 10/03/08
Well, all this talk of which offering is better is silly. I'm in the cellphone industry I see/use all these devices and get direct feedback from consumers. As I'm based in New York we get a lot of international customers and I can tell you the only phone these folks want is the Iphone. I like the phone but people all over the world are obsessed with this darn phone. So say all you want which phone/op system has what the fact is all they want is the darn iphone. I also noticed a lot of comments saying it doesn't matter about if the interface/usability is not as integrated or easy as the iphone. I can tell you that this factually false based on consumers feedback. A typical person says "I know nothing about technology so I need a phone that is easy to use and not complicated" I don't even recommend they get the iphone based on this but still they want it. So as much as I wish android well, hands up for competition, the fact of the matter is the iphone will continue to dominate. All the other manufacturers of phones are scrambling to come up with their version of the iphone it's all so sad it took apple corp to create the iphone to wake up the American cellphone industry. Before it's release the rest of the world laughed at the sad state of the phone offerings in the US as they were years behind what was and still is offered in the rest of the world. Another thing left out of the equation is that both At&t and Tmobile use gsm so it's very easy to unlock their phones and use whatever gsm carrier you like.
By madeo at 11:55 AM ON 10/03/08
I like Iphone, but the designers of this product are close minded which left us with very limited softwares. My biggest gripe is the lack of "Flash" support and even Mr. Jobs refuses to have it for the Iphone.
Anyway, as soon as I can find a similar product that can support Flash, i'll ditch this thing in a heart beat. If the new T-mobile phone can do that then I'll definitely buy it.
By roby nabil at 3:55 AM ON 10/07/08
very nice
By rocker91397 at 3:50 PM ON 10/20/08
i wish that either the iphone got a full QWERTY keyboard or the sidekick got a touch screen that would be the coolest EVER!!!
By platta at 1:23 PM ON 10/22/08
the joy of android is that someone will put it on an Iphone...
By jymmyjaymes at 2:43 PM ON 10/24/08
I happen to work for T-Mobile, and I believe we are a dollar short and a day late on this device. But, I am also a believer of the old adage "better late than never" and filling the void where T-Mobile customers ask me if we have the i-phone for their service, so it will help keep existing customers and gain new ones. Not a large niche, but a niche, nontheless. I am focusing more on the track ball feature and the pull out keyboard. oh well, it is what it is!
By Kris at 8:38 PM ON 10/18/09
First off I hate iTunes with a passion, I'd much rather be able to drag and drop my own songs that are DRM free. Another thing with apple is how proprietary they are. I will use what I want to use not what apple tells me what is ok to use. I paid the money, not you.
By Casper at 8:40 AM ON 12/22/09
Stewart - Feel like an idiot yet?
on your cellphone!
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