Related Sections: HDTV Home Theater Shift
SHIFT: Earth to Blu-ray — show us a sign
Blu-ray officially won the format war against HD DVD more than six weeks ago. It's old news, but I'm still thinking about it. Ever since HD DVD died, commentators have been less than optimistic about Blu-ray's future. Just last week my colleague Charlie White opined that spinning media is dead, agreeing with a chief scientist at THX. Last month fellow columnist Leslie Shapiro argued that although Blu-ray won the format war, it would continue to cower in the shadow of video downloads. ComputerWorld listed four reasons Blu-ray will tank, and they are remarkably similar to the four reasons Slate thought that both formats were "dead on arrival" back in 2006. Talk about raining on the parade.
Not everyone agrees. David Pogue of The New York Times believes that physical media will be alive and kicking for the foreseeable future. Saul Hansell, also of the Times, explained why flash drives won't replace discs anytime soon. What's clear is that Blu-ray finally has the potential to be a serious contender. So why isn't it doing what's necessary to get there? Click Continue to read my advice for Sony, the chief creator of the format.
Since the end of the format war I've thought that Blu-ray has the potential to be wildly successful, but only if it's willing to slash prices and make a determined effort to teach consumers what the hell it is. So far it's done neither and is growing, but slowly. While earlier in the year Blu-ray discs typically accounted for 2 to 3% of a particular movie's sale, that figure has jumped as high as 12% for some titles. Analysts predict that 30 million homes worldwide will have Blu-ray players (mostly in the form of a PS3) by the end of the year. After that, growth will continue at a slow, steady pace— no one's calling this new format the next iPod. Here's how Sony could speed things up.
I think it's impossible to overestimate how confusing the Blu-ray name has been, especially in the context of some sort of obscure tech "war" most people only barely knew about. My peers — young, social-networking educated professionals in their mid-twenties — have no idea what Blu-ray is. Seriously. I've been quizzing them. A recent study shows that 60% of Americans are "aware" of the Blu-ray brand. That doesn't mean they know what the machines do.
The name Blu-ray isn't synonymous with HD the way Kleenex is with tissues, Xerox is with copies, or Band-Aid is with little sticky things you put on cuts. I wish that Blu-ray could co-opt, purchase or adopt the name HD DVD (or "Hi-Def DVD" if Toshiba won't sell and doesn't own it already). Sadly, this seems an unlikely possibility. But it's not the only way the format can get traction. Where is Blu-ray's Apple-style multimillion-dollar advertising and educational campaign? It seems that Sony was more interested in winning over studios than customers. The result is instead of Blu-ray being a buzzword, it's a nerdy-sounding conversation killer.
I'm baffled by how the format has made itself so obscure to consumers. Even Blu-ray's official website, blu-raydisc.com hasn't updated its press releases since August 2007. Hint to Sony: Hire a better PR firm.
By Cookyman at 10:43 PM ON 04/03/08
I hope you forwarded this article to our friends over at Sony. They really need to get with the game. Excellent piece by the way.
By murc at 1:03 AM ON 04/04/08
I agree with this article 100%.
I'm actually debating if I want to ever own a blu-ray player or not. Currently I have hundreds of dvd's, and I watch them on my 1080p tv, with my up-converting dvd player. and for the future...i'm stuck, on if I feel like I should...Go blu. OR go HD, and by HD, I'm not talkin High Def, I'm talkin Hard Drive.
As Hard Drive prices continually fall (dollar per gig), I keep thinking it would be smarter to buy some 2TB western Digital "my book" and BOOM, I would have tons of storage for all of my movies. I could get High Def movies, then change the format to H-264, which does a great job of compression, it can make a 25GB Blu-Ray disc shrink down to like 4GB....Lets say it would take 5 GB per movie. 2 TB of storage, could hold 372 movies, in (very close to) High Def.
By thexfile at 3:14 AM ON 04/04/08
stil think the artikel you mentiond about flash not beeing up to it says nothing !!
people seem to vorget the benifits of using flash that was never discussed in that artikel...
and that flash is not up to it , whel we al said that about memory storage...
in my liftime ( now 31 ) memory has gone from 2.5 md on a big 5.25 inch floppy drive to 8 gigs that fits on your finger nail.... and yes at that time we al said it was never going to hapen , and that it was never going to work !!!
the reson why producers do not want it to work is simple , fear off copy wright infringemant !!!
but part from now beeing slow , whel in olden days al drives start out slow.... but somhow we get more speed out of it...
as it beeing to expensive , that's also just a marketing thing.... if everybody that now had cd's used compakt flash the market price would fal !!
and maby that's also a thing producers do'nt like , maby they like making big amounts of money.... but in the end prices wil come down if there is enouthe uptake....
but honestly did you beleve then you would ever use cf card in the way we do now ??....
just think like kenedy , if you beleve you can do it it wil be done and if you dismis it and stay ignorant nothing wil hapen...
just do everything to make it hapen !!
beleve me the benifits on saving mases of power world wide withe the use of cf cards insted of cd's outways the bad things it holds now....
and people say it's slow ??
whel if i can play a ful dvd movie on my 10x7x1 cm phoon screen without it slowing down i see no problem withe a divice like my phone ( that yes i can hook up to my 46 inch lcd tv ) be used as the future dvd player / mediacenter....
the articel says it ca'nt be done but why can i do it then ???
and i knw when cd's here were 50 euro's even when rewritable cd's cost as much a disk !!
and now you can get them for almoast nothing !!
i think the "i pod generation" like myself is not amused by viewing content in 1 spot !!
we want to take our content everywhere !! watsh it onn the go , and maby then when we are at friends plug the mashines into a bigger screen and view it then and there....
and it's not scie fie , like i said i have such a mashine which i bought of the shelf !!
and it comsumes way les power then a seperate dvd player etc....
and that some people are so hung up on saving empty boxes of cd's that's just sick !!!
that's what consumerisme has told you to do al those years , and moast of you out there are adicted to that vision they want you to have.. !!!
whel this generation is not buying it anymore , and it's at a point of fighting it or joining it !!
we r now telling you what we want , now stop wining and make it so !!!
By The Gorn at 8:51 AM ON 04/04/08
HD downloads are years away still. The bandwidth isn't there to support downloadable HD content. Even SD content takes forever to download at this point. Bluray will have its day in the sun as long as people have the sets to appreciate it.
By Traveler at 11:53 AM ON 04/04/08
BluRay and HDTV to a lesser extent have the same problem; most people dont give a rib about quality - just price.
By not_buying_anytime_soon at 6:15 PM ON 04/08/08
Too bad HD-DVD died...I personally think it was a much better technology that we could have had in our homes for a lot cheaper than what we'll end up paying to get Blu-ray.
Oh, a comment on the post by thexfile; if that was written in regular english (like the other posts), I probably would have taken the time to read the whole thing!
By gibbsgr at 6:19 PM ON 04/08/08
The real killer format is really High Capacity SD-memory. with 32 Gb SD-memory comming out. think of it a Blu-Ray capacity and quality with out the wait for the drive of the player to spindle up and load the movie. Spinning media is dead.
By ACONSUMER at 6:27 PM ON 04/08/08
The interesting thing to me is, I was completely unaware of the Blu-Ray vs HD DVD thing until just now, when I read this article. I am not a total tech ignoramus; I work from home with my computer, but I don't always keep up with what the latest buzz is. My first thought was, Jeez, I'm about to buy a new TV and I can't get HD anymore?! Whattheheck? Now what do I do? I was quite dismayed. Your guy makes a serious point - I've seen NO advertising on Blu-Ray, don't know how it works or how to incorporate it into my life, since it appears I will have to if I want to watch a movie at home in the future in hi def. Now I'm going to have to research this whole thing out, which is kind of frustrating. Although, I am very happy that Dvice has made me aware of it, before I went and bought my TV!
As a note on a comment I read above from THEXFILE - please, learn to spell! Your comment looked like it made some good points, but honest, I couldn't read the whole thing as I couldn't get past the spelling and grammar errors. I-pod generation you say you are, did you learn to spell by Phonics? I am not trying to criticize, like I said you put a lot of thought into what you said, but who would know that, it's almost impossible to read?!
By Adeptus at 8:15 PM ON 04/08/08
To "ACONSUMER": Yes you are obviously confused. You can still buy HD TV's.
Blu-Ray was competing with HD-DVD, ie the disc (and player) format. So, when you go to get a high definition movie player to use the full capability of your new HDTV, there will essentially be less confusion. The question "Do I get HD-DVD or Blu-Ray?" has been answered for you.
And to everyone who is picking on "THEXFILE" - he mentions prices in Euros, I'm guessing English is not his native language. Give him a break.
By raymondjram at 9:20 PM ON 04/08/08
Although some computer users prefer downloading their music and movies, most consumers want to buy a physical media (CDs and DVDs) for music and films. If we have to wait for Blu-Ray players to drop prices, then we should get Toshiba's HD-DVD players and HD-DVD films at liquidation prices now for our HD TVs. When the market and demand for Blu-Ray slows down, then their prices have to come down, too. By that time, Blu-Ray recorders prices come down, and I will transfer the HD-DVD films to Blu-Ray later, just as I have transfered my VCR tapes to DVD.
By kingpeck at 9:32 PM ON 04/08/08
To "Adeptus": I assume you noticed that Aconsumer mentioned HD DVD at the start. I think this is what they meant, not that they couldn't find a HDTV. Mainly just the content wasn't advertised as HD.
To "TheXFile": This article is about HD video in the form of blu-ray, and while I am sure your phone can play back at around 320x240 or something like that, for the moment however, 1920x1080 isn't something it can handle.
To "GibbsGR": Flash memory isn't the answer either at the moment. Sure there are no spin times, but think of the money it takes to buy them. Even if they became mainstream as distribution, they wouldn't be viable for another 3-4 years. When a Blu-ray disc costs $1-$4 to stamp on a machine (I don't know the costs, but this seems reasonable) in plastic, why would you want to do it another way.
By Anonymous at 5:25 AM ON 04/09/08
Just look at that entry from THEXFILE! Living proof of what all this tech. is doing for the literary skills of "this generation". He/she proably thinks the language is "cool". How embarassing and depressing.
By John in Missouri at 9:37 AM ON 04/09/08
I took the plunge in January and threw out my old home theater system for a new one, including Sony Bravia and Blu-ray. For those of you who have done the same, you know why it was worth it. For those of you who haven't, you don't know what you are missing.
WRT platter prices, yeah, they're high right now, but I've no doubt they will come down. I am in total agreement with the contributor who suggested that disks will be around for a long time yet. In ten years, perhaps 50% of our home movie watching will be by download, no more.
By AlphaBob at 11:05 PM ON 04/09/08
110% agree. Sony shows acute lack of marketing savy. I was buying HD-DVDs left and right, often because they were dual format. I had figured out that not only did I want something to wow my senses (the HD content), but I also needed something I could convert to my portable player (iPod Touch or PSP). There is zero sense in paying for a BluRay disk at $30 to convert over to the small screen. But I could justify paying $25 to buy the HD-DVD equivalent and still be able to convert to the small screen.
Not everybody in America is serviced by a HD cable system. Not everybody wants to watch what happens to be on the limited HD channels. So rotating media is here to stay if -- and it is a big if -- Sony doesn't kill it off with stupidity first.
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AlphaBob:
110% agree. Sony shows acute lack of marketing savy. I was buying HD-DVDs left and right, often because they were...More »