


Can you imagine a world before the iPhone? It's difficult, isn't it? But there was a time earlier in the year when instead of reviewing the iPhone, we were making predictions about it. In April I wrote a column titled Why the iPhone will succeed, at any price. I argued that while other cellphone companies have some great products, they also flood the market with mediocre ones. I wrote that niche products don't capture the public imagination, and that when it comes to selling products, diversity is overrated: "What about the concern that consumers don't want to be sitting on the subway next to someone with the same gadget? Well, the iPod blew that notion away." I advised future Apple rivals like Motorola: "stop diluting your best models with 20-plus other mediocre models."
Motorola never sent me a thank you note. On the other hand, you don't need me to tell you that Apple's minimalist strategy played out well in 2007: the company sold one million iPhones during the product's first 74 days on the market. When will other companies start offering fewer, better products? My observations and wishes for 2008 after the jump.
Choice Is Bad 1: Leopard vs. Vista
The iPhone succeeded in part for the reason I mentioned — in a sea of Palms, BlackBerrys, and HTCs, the iPhone is an excellent option that cuts through the confusing variety that can make consumers second-guess their decisions. There's only one iPhone. It costs $399. You'll get 8 GB of memory, no more, no less. One color, one size.
Apple fully understands its lead in this respect within the tech industry: just watch this brutal Choose a Vista Mac ad. It's hard to understand Microsoft's logic for introducing six versions of Vista, making everyone except the Ultimate users feel left out. At the same time, Ultimate purchasers hold a sneaking suspicion that they didn't actually get a lot more for their money. Leopard may not be a better operating system than Vista. Both systems are young and still ironing out kinks. But Leopard certainly is easier to choose. Because Apple just offers one system you don't have to worry about a customer service rep. saying, "Oh, well that's because you bought the wrong version."
Choice Is Bad 2: The Amazon Kindle
Amazon's recent Kindle launch is notable because it's a great example of a company offering one product where it could have introduced six. Amazon is trying to do for digital readers what the iPod did for digital music players. It hasn't started with the most attractive product, but it did just start with one product: the definitive Kindle that is supposed to have enough memory, Internet access, speed, and readability for any and every customer. It would have been easy for Amazon to introduce many Kindles — more memory, less memory, EV-DO, no EV-DO, blog capable, book only, etc. But as it is you can buy an Amazon Kindle in whatever color you want, as long as it's white. Has the strategy worked for Amazon's first gadget? It's too early to say. In the meantime, if you want one, get in line.
Choice Is Bad 3: Too Many iPods?
In April I spoke about how Apple was the paragon of simplicity. The company still offers just a few computers, but the number if iPods on the market has multiplied over the years from two to many. Even if I don't count different colors, there are seven iPod choices costing $79, $149, $199, $249, $299, $349, and $399. That's more iPods than there are editions of Windows Vista. If you include all of the color choices as well, we're looking at seventeen different iPods, compared to one $399 iPhone.
One might argue that, with its seventeen iPods, Apple has never been healthier; after all, its stock broke the $200 mark for the first time yesterday. But I smell iPod fatigue on the horizon. Plus, the 6G iPod Classic has gotten some seriously bad reviews — is the iPod team spread too thin?
Apple should be careful if it wants to continue to seem like it's "thinking different" from other tech companies. Feature creep is a known issue: Apple needs to watch out for variety creep.
My New Year's Resolution for Tech Companies: Slim Down
While others dream of Roombas that put your clothes away, I have simpler hopes for 2008. My wish for the New Year is for some of the great tech companies out there to slim down their product lines and surprise me instead with one great thing. I want to see a camera company with just one point and shoot — an excellent but affordable one that the company will stand by as the one to get. And I need a new PC notebook. HP: why are you selling a million different models? Are people's needs really so diverse? How about one solid product at several price points? I like Apple, but I'm not ready for it to swallow every market whole. Rivals, please repeat after me: quality, not quantity.
By Person at 11:55 AM ON 12/28/07
This article sucks.
By Jon at 12:00 PM ON 12/28/07
Leopard is in every way a better operating system than Vista. Vista has received numerous awards for worst tech product of the year and most people choose to downgrade to Windows XP. Leopard however is a vast improvement from Tiger.
By JONRT08@AOL.com at 12:03 PM ON 12/28/07
Leopard is certainly a better operating system than Vista. Vista has received awards for Worst Tech Product of 2007 and Worst Tech Product of All Time. Numerous Vista users end up downgrading to Windows XP while Leopard is a vast improvement from Tiger.
By bubba at 12:05 PM ON 12/28/07
This is a great article.
Obviously MicroSoft & many other won't heed the advice; until .... they get better marketing resources. Product marketing's to blame here. Less is more, unless that "less" slimmer line of products is truly deficient.
And, yes ... there are too many iPod choices; but only one per each relatively discreet price range.
By joef at 12:10 PM ON 12/28/07
I wonder why this "1 million sold units" is such an "pro" argument.
In the mobile market one million is not impressive at all (Motorola RAZR has much more than 50 mio sold units).
And nobody but the mobile phone industry would count Apple as "newcomer" as they have a well known brand.
Given the ubiquitous marketing I would say that one million sold units is actually a failure (they did the price-drop only to hit the 1 mio mark).
By static at 12:20 PM ON 12/28/07
It took Motorola over a year to sell 1 million RAZR's. In a couple of weeks Jobs will announce that he has sold 5 million iPhones already. (in 6 months)so yeah, the number may not seem fantastic at face value, but if you do a little research you will see the timeline is what is truelly impressive. BTW, I had a razr and other than the size, it sucks in every way possible...My iphone is amazing..
By Tommy G at 12:35 PM ON 12/28/07
I was so excited for the iPod Touch. The iPhone is useless to me until it gets 3G and push email support, but the idea of an iPhone interface on an iPod is outstanding. I was literally going to go buy one at launch...then I saw the storage space; 8Gb or 16Gb. I did a triple take. I was already debating with myself on whether to get an 80Gb or 120Gb model. 8 and 16Gb? That is useless. What a terrible decision to go with flash storage. So here I sit with my 60Gb 5G iPod until Apple gets its head out of its a$$ and adds some usable storage to the Touch.
By Adam Gresty at 12:37 PM ON 12/28/07
An interesting argument.
And certainly no argument that Apple really have re-invented the mobile phone.
I expect Steve will have some pretty amazing sales figures to share at his keynote next month.
I'll let Malcolm Gladwell offer you a counter though...
By merk at 2:02 PM ON 12/28/07
please dont confuse better product with better marketing. I personally think the idea that the iphone succeeded because there's only one choice is the dumbest thing i've heard. The iphone succeeded because of a few reasons:
1. a very cool looking interface
2. marketing - apple is good at this
3. fanatics - there are some people who will buy anything new from apple
Add all that together and it explains why there were idiot people willing to stand in line over-night to get one or to fly to another city to get one. It explains why people are willing to pay so much for a phone/media player with a fairly limited amount of memory considering it has no external flash card slot AND does not have a user replaceable battery. Those last two reasons are reason enough for me to stay away from the iphone. I only own a cell phone and there's no way in hell i'm going to buy a phone that requires me to return it to replace the battery. Only apple could pull that off.
i posted a short blog entry on the iphone a while back:
http://aspadvice.com/blogs/ian_lipsky/archive/2007/01/11/my-own-thoughts-on-the-IPhone.aspx
By ummmmmm no at 2:46 PM ON 12/28/07
yeah.. sorry.. no..
this article blows, almost as much as the millions of fanboys on steve job's junk.
By Punk buster at 3:44 PM ON 12/28/07
Anyone who doesn't like or agree with this post should start their own blog and post their thoughts.
This article does not suck, noob. You suck. Enjoy obscurity. You will always be a nobody.
By slinky317 at 4:19 PM ON 12/28/07
Get a clue, the world wasn't much different before the iPhone. Please stop writing this pretentious bullshit and go back to masturbating at a picture of Steve Jobs.
By reason at 4:59 PM ON 12/28/07
@Bubba
"Obviously MicroSoft & many other won't heed the advice; until .... they get better marketing resources. Product marketing's to blame here. Less is more, unless that "less" slimmer line of products is truly deficient."
Money doesn't necessarily buy quality or smarts.
; j
The do fine meeting market needs, they FAIL in meeting customer needs.
"Engineers create the world we live in, designers make it worth living in."
Mircosoft behaves like it only employs Engineers and Public Relations - reminds me of GM.
By msheezy at 5:55 PM ON 12/28/07
i'm not an apple fan boy but i'm going to assume most of the people on here putting down the iphone have nevere really picked one up or navigated through it. it's really really simple and smooth. that's all most people want. this device is a no brainer. so what it costs $400. i've seen clunkier nokias and motorolas anywhere from $500-$600 if you want them before they get subsidized by the carriers.
By kittenfactory at 6:35 PM ON 12/28/07
Choice is far, far, too difficult. The supermarkets reek of overabundance and stale fecundity. All I want is a Klondike Bar / Klondike Bar that is also a phone.
By duba at 9:50 PM ON 12/28/07
But isn't it really just a matter of the iPhone being the new kid on the block? We all like shiny new things.
Looking forward, unless the iPhone can improve performance (access to hi-speed networks) it won't keep up with user expectations.
By td08 at 7:27 AM ON 12/29/07
Wow; it isn't obvious who the 12 year olds are.
I agree completely, my family all bought Dell laptops at the same time, and there isn't a single bit of design that is even vaguely similar, save the Dell logo. That is not enough to establish a definitive product. All have completely different hardware features, even the keyboard layouts are randomly different. I got a Macbook pro, and vista ultimate. Disappointed with vista, wasn't worth the price. Leopard was. If you're in a position to choose, methodologies aside, 399 vs 129? No competition. Get Win Server 2003, or wait.
By Geordie at 8:16 AM ON 12/29/07
This is the same thing that happened to the Sony PS3.
There was one PS2. It did really well. Sony brought out the PS3 in different models and look what happens. Its only just started to pick up momentum with the price drop and the introduction of what seems to be the most popular model, the 40GB.
And which console has done the best this year. The Nintentdo Wii, which comes in one model!
Exactly the same thing going on the the gaming console world as the computer, Mp3, Phone and other technology's.
This acturally relates to studys that say when there is to much choice and range of products for the consumer they are less likley to purchase a product.
If i remember correctly the study was taken on two jam shops. one had a extremely large range while the other had three simple flavors. the one with the simpler flavors had more sales because the customer was not confused, overwhelmed or feeling ripped off or having second thoughts about their purchase.
By mycael_e_m@hotmail.co.uk at 6:57 AM ON 12/30/07
Very Good article. When my friends ask "What laptop I should get?" I always say MacBook. But then they look at the £699 price tag. So i say a vaio but there are loads and the website doesn't say what they do!
By Zaibatsu at 2:12 AM ON 01/02/08
Wow, who the f**k are you again... Brilliant article, one of the best I've read about the iPod. I was surfing the interwebs and I found some great content. I don't know you, or your blog... but well I do now.
Peace
Reg
By mbdc at 3:51 PM ON 01/02/08
Why do PC users hate or even sound jealous of there being "mac fanboys"?
you get it on every single forum in the world if you dare say that you like an apple product.
FACT 20 or more of my PC loving friends have slowly over the years become such Apple fanboys. Says something.....
Use the product and then slag it off...not before. I've never used Vista and therefore will not judge it. Have however used Zune..not as good as ipod...Xbox 360....amazing microsoft product...xp...ok ish etc etc
By Mfitz at 9:14 AM ON 01/03/08
You know what I want? A phone that is actually easy to use to make phone calls. I want one that is easy to dial, I don't want to have to go through a dozen menus to get to the phone book. I want to hear the person on the other side over everyday background noise without having to wear a weird (and yes you all look ridiculous, way too self involved and self important wearing them get a grip the world won't end if you miss a phone call) ear mounted mini-head set. I don't want my phone to store every MP3 ever made, I don't want it to surf the web, I don't want to shoot music videos with it. I can't read the menus on my either my cell phone or my I-pod w/o my cheater glasses so I have no desire to try to watch a movie on the insanely tiny screen of any hand head device.
Maybe I'm just a crazy old kook, but I want to use my phone designed to make phone calls. I want it to stand up to being tossed in my purse, or pocket for a couple of years, and want it cheap enough that if I loose it I can replace it without having to skip a house payment. I don't think they make anything like that anymore.
By Pedantic at 9:39 AM ON 01/03/08
It's amazing. Criticize their beloved Macs and Mac peripherals even a little bit and the Mac zealots go utterly knutz in their rabid denunciation of the vile perpetrators. Look, every product has its faults; even Apple products, and the Mac community will be considered a cult and not ready for prime time until they learn and accept this hard truth.
By RAB at 11:00 AM ON 01/03/08
One thing about the iPhone. What kills it for me is the service. I will never go back to Cingular/AT&T. The broadband simply doesn't measure up to what I get with Verizon, and neither does the customer support.
Interesting addition that I never hear people comment on: The RF noise that these phone throw out. When there's an incomming call or some form of net access they broadcast a horrific noise, picked up by any close by PC and stereo speakers with a static blast. We had a party on Saturday, and I'd put a bunch of wireless speakers throughout the house. Two of my friends came with iPhones, we had to ask them to turn them off because of the noise they were generating.
And yes, that does go into whether a product is superior or not.
By Calson at 3:12 PM ON 01/03/08
"What about the concern that consumers don't want to be sitting on the subway next to someone with the same gadget? Well, the iPod blew that notion away."
No it didn't. The iPod was a success because no one else had one. Once everyone had one, Apple had to introduce variety into the line so that users could differentiate themselves. The whole Apple premise is that its products are exclusive and that you are special because you have one.
By David Mackey at 7:52 PM ON 01/04/08
Really enjoyed your article. I agree simplicity is a core essential. I posted a link over at informednetworker.
By Skerit at 1:44 PM ON 01/07/08
Did the iphone dominate the year, really?
Maybe 'cause I live in a country where it's not released yet I don't have to watch all those idiots gloat with their new toys..
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