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SHIFT: What an XM-Sirius merger would mean (and why no one will care)

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When XM and Sirius satellite radio launched less than a decade ago, they were instant archrivals. Coke and Pepsi had nothing on these two. Yankees and Mets are better buddies. These sworn enemies were fighting tooth and nail for subscribers, and seemed to be happy fighting amongst themselves. What they didn't notice was that they were fighting the wrong battle.

I've been a fan of satellite radio since it was first announced. When I got my first XM tuner, I was like a kid in a candy shop. I filled up all three banks of presets, and spread the word on how amazing this technology was to anyone who would listen. I was conducting demos in the parking lot at work. Yup. Big fan.

Although it's clear that I love satellite radio, it's equally clear that most everybody else doesn't. I recently bought a new car, supposedly "with XM." The salesman had no clue if there was actually an XM receiver built into the car, and neither did his manager. Finally, three people later, I found out that my system is "XM ready," and they still couldn't tell me how to get XM in the car (I just needed a plug-and-play tuner connected to the Aux input). If I can't figure out how to get XM, how could the average consumer? Clearly, satellite radio isn't winning any popularity contests.

Sirius and XM have had almost six years to find an audience — why aren't more people tuning in? Follow the link for my theory.

Trouble in the Stars
While the satellite-radio industry and I were busy looking at the stars, another technology was quietly changing conditions on the ground. Small, portable MP3 players were being sold when both satellite services launched, but they seemed innocent enough at the time — not really a threat. Then, a little company named Apple introduced its portable digital audio player. Cute, user-friendly and iconic, the iPod quickly created and conquered the portable market, with a reported 100 million iPods being sold to date.

The satellite-radio guys never saw it coming. While they were busy fighting each other, they didn't realize who the real enemy was. Portability was just too convenient. Too little too late, the sales and performance of portable satellite-radio tuners never took off, probably due to confusion: some were truly portable receivers, some received the satellite signal only when docked at home. Still others recorded radio programming, and could play your own MP3 files. But with 100 million iPod products out there, you can assume those people have a good chunk of their music library stored as AAC files, and thus only able to play on iPods and a few other players. Why take a chance on hearing your favorite song on the radio when you could listen to all your favorites on your iPod?

Other Fronts
Without missing a beat, once the iPod had saturated the portable market, Apple quickly and easily set sights on the home audio market. While a few home satellite-radio products were introduced, every home audio manufacturer was scrambling to produce "iPod-ready" products.

Quietly entering the battlefield a few years ago, HD Radio has recently increased its presence with a massive advertising campaign. HD Radio is free, sounds great, and is easily accessed with a compatible head unit or table radio, broadcasting your local stations with local news and information. Did I mention that HD Radio is free? Many car systems are being introduced with this technology as well as home receivers. Plus, it's free.

What a Merger Would Mean
Like most satellite-radio fans, I feel like I'm the only person who cares what happens when and if these companies merge. I for one hope that together, they'll remain strong enough to survive. I love having the listening options, plus the potential to hear Beethoven in Boise or ZZ Top in Zion. Once merged, the satellite giants can eliminate some of the redundancy in their channel lineups and offer more options in similar categories. Opie and Anthony, meet Howard Stern.

By joining forces, XM and Sirius can concentrate their efforts on developing new technology, expanding hardware options and improving sound quality. Customers can expect their existing equipment to remain functional, but new products with chipsets to receive both services will be introduced. The companies promise that their current 12 million subscribers will benefit from the merge. We'll see about that.

Portable audio players have their place, but many of us still like to hear new music that we'll only discover on our satellite radios. Satellite radio introduces new music, or reminds me of old favorites that I can add to my music library. There's room in the market for satellite radio and "personal" music, and with XM and Sirius merged, there's a chance satellite radio stick around and gain ground. Will the merger attract a significant number of new subscribers? Probably not — it will probably just ensure that the services stay around for those of us already sold on the technology.

Cease Fire
With so many viable options, such as iPods, HD Radio, and even streaming Internet radio and music on cell phones, the merger of XM and Sirius might not be big news for most people. But for those of us who passionately love our satellite radio, this is as big as Apple and Microsoft joining forces. With the promise for benefits such as improved hardware and programming choices, fans of both services could end up winners. But there's a good chance the rest of the world might never get its ears off the ground.

         
Comments

I can't wait for this to happen, all the content i want in one place.

HD Radio Free? Not quite. Maybe after you buy $100-$200 HD receiver.
But one optional feature of HD radio is "pay for play" where a listener has to unlock a radio station by paying a fee. That's where HD radio is heading, if it takes off.
Also what is there to listen to on HD?
The commercial stations that have adopted it are mostly re-broadcasting their morning shows over- and-over all day long. Who wants to hear that?
The real alternative technology for radio is WiFi Internet radio. As more U.S. cities go free-WiFi - Internet radio can be streamed in your car or headset.
That's why big broadcasters are trying so hard to stamp out Internet radio.
Voters need to let their congressmen know they support Internet Radio.

Seems, as if consumers are just not interested in "radio" anymore:

“4/4/07 - FCC: Market to Decide Fate of HD Radio”

http://www.diymedia.net/archive/0407.htm

“Sirius, XM, and HD: Consumer interest reality check”

“While interest in satellite radio is diminishing, interest in HD shows no signs of a pulse.”

http://www.hear2.com/2007/02/sirius_xm_and_h.html

"U.S. automakers not jumping into HD Radio"

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSN2632750220070427?pageNumber=1

"Bridge Ratings: Sweat the cell phone and don't count on HD"

"In other words, Bridge says interest in HD radio is decreasing even as your station works hard to increase awareness. What can I possibly add to this honest and bleak picture that I haven't said before? My well-intended warnings about HD's "premature death" seem to be rearing their ugly heads almost two years later."

http://www.hear2.com/2007/04/bridge_ratings_.html#comments

"But is 'availability' of HD radios the problem?"

"And one broadcaster reported to me that he asked an iBiquity rep how many HD radios had actually been sold as of the most recent accounting. And this was his answer: 150,000."

http://www.hear2.com/2007/04/but_is_availabi.html#comments

And, yes iPods are killing "radio" (70% of new cars will have iPod jacks available):

Google Trends for "hd radio", xm, sirius, "internet radio", podcast:

http://tinyurl.com/ys3q99

Google Trends for "hd radio", xm, sirius, iPod:

http://tinyurl.com/2m4a2k

XM radio is one of the best entertainment options available if you love music. Once I tried it I was hooked. It is the only music I listen to in my car and the boombox rules! The selection will suit any taste in music. I have discovered artists I never heard before which have become some of my favorite. I cannot imagine listening to any other radio anymore. As far as I am concerned I cannot wait for the merger if it insure the survival of the best thing that has ever happened to radio.

Satellite radio has been my savior on road trips to visit my daughter (2 days away,) to the beach and to the Bethlehem Bach festival in Pa. I am both a news junky and classical music lover, and I can tell you that unless I come across an area that has a public radio station with a good signal I can forget about hearing anything that pleases me and that can help keep me awake while driving. At home, on the occasion when sleep evades me, the BBC is my companion. Let's hope the merger makes it even better.

Satellite radio has been my savior on road trips to visit my daughter (2 days away,) to the beach and to the Bethlehem Bach festival in Pa. I am both a news junky and classical music lover, and I can tell you that unless I come across an area that has a public radio station with a good signal I can forget about hearing anything that pleases me and that can help keep me awake while driving. At home, on the occasion when sleep evades me, the BBC is my companion. Let's hope the merger makes it even better.

Satellite radio rocks. I listen to the NFL network constantly at work and on the road. As to the Ipod killing it, ok two problems. IPOD's only hold limited music, and the quesion is where did that music come from and what is it's quality. Sirius offes all flavors and at a monthly cost equal to purchasing one album or twelve songs from your friendly I-Tunes. Plus it is no longer an "IPOD" situation. The technology is so open on this with so many alternatives that work exactly the same or better in some opinoins that let's call it what it is... "Portable MP3".
It will not kill the satellite radio.
Besides that.. Race Fan? Listen to your favorite driver "live" in the race... how cool is that.

Are the Yankees and the Mets really rivals? I would have thought that Yankees and Red Sox would have been a better analogy.

Anyway, satellite radio is awesome. I hope it stays with us.

I will admit I never listened to either of the satellite radios, but I have been listening to the DJ and commercial free music on cable for over a decade. A few years ago I had replaced the stereo in my car with a nice alpine that would play MP3 CDs, but soon after burning a few discs I got an IPod and found them obsolete. Even at home I prefer my Ipod over the cable music programming while I working the shop if I am not watching TV, so I know I would not be the least interested in paying for that satellite radio.

I have a 1 gig memory card in my phone with lots of music on it, but I very rarely use it for fear of running my battery down and not being able to maintain a phone conversation, and it does not play loud enough for my taste. There are no options for this, since the headphone jack is so tiny. I cannot even try out different headphones.

The car dealership story sums up this issue for the public at large quite well.

Live LOVE,
Be, Believe

If XM or Sirus are going to make any inroads towards taking iPod audience, it's going to be by producing good content that's only available through them. Frankly, not a morning goes by without me listening to The Howard Stern show and I'll continue to subscribe to Sirus for as long as he's there. There's no way to get him any other way and although I'd like it better if I could download his show and play it via an iPod, it's an amazing show and I'll take it anyway I can get it.

One thing a lot of people don�t take into account TRUCK DRIVERS, yes there�s a lot of us out there. We go from city to city and always changing radio stations, or in the country of dead zones (yes there out there where you have nothing on the radio). Sense the satellite radio came out it is been a blessing, it�s our companion away from home. It also keeps us company on those long nights when you have to shut down in the middle of no where, or the times you break down waiting the hours for someone to come by and fix a blown tire and the list goes on and on�

Your talking about music on the satellite, well let me fill you in a little bit, it also has info station that is very useful for planning trip; ie weather warning station.

Xm & Sirius will survive if they merge. They are spending too much energy fighting each other. I think the merger will go thru. Any sane person can see its a good thing for the consumer. IF however the merger doesn't go thru, I think its obvious that Sirius will survive and xm will not. Sirius is growing faster, has better content and is under better management. There is a chance that CBS could buy XM if the merger doesn't go thru as well. Who knows.

But if it goes thru, a sirius/xm merger would be amazing. I think its natural. People are fed up with commercial radio. The fines. The political correctness. The COMMERCIALS. And as much as I love my ipod and use it when I travel. I don't think the ipod is a threat in the car. People LIKE to hear new stuff. They like choice. They like new. And as much as I enjoy loading up my 60 gig ipod...I've got nearly 5,000 songs on it which would take nearly 2 weeks straight to listen to every song on it! However...there is still a love for radio that will never die. Plus you can listen to live events, all genres of music as well as talk radio and current news without EVER having to spend a second archiving. Apple would be smart to buy the combined company down the road.

And wifi radio is NOT a threat. At least not in cars. Wifi coverage is spotty at best. And we are decades away anything coming close to UNIVERSAL coverage. So short term no. And even if it were a reality....sat rad should not worry.

Car dealers are putting xm and sirius in cars with no problems. I think the above writers experience is not the norm. At least no one else I know had such a hard time with a car dealer. Sounds like some young kid who just didn't know anything to me.

Anyway. I really can't wait for this merger to go thru. Happy Times. :-)

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